Football · France Ligue 1 · 06/11, 20:45

Prediction: Toulouse vs Strasbourg

Team pages: Toulouse · Strasbourg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Toulouse1.87

Strasbourg1.45

1X2

47% 25% 29%

Toulouse Draw Strasbourg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Toulouse 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDWDWD

Strasbourg 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLLLL

Head-to-head

Toulouse 2–1–3 Strasbourg (6 last)

Strasbourg1-2Toulouse
Toulouse1-0Strasbourg
Strasbourg2-1Toulouse
Toulouse1-2Strasbourg
Toulouse0-0Strasbourg
Strasbourg2-0Toulouse

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toulouse 1495 · Strasbourg 1488

	Toulouse	Draw	Strasbourg
Our model	47%	24%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Strasbourg: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toulouse	Strasbourg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.3	1.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.3 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.70

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.08 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.34

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:51 +16’	2.00	3.70	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:23 +44’	2.08	3.70	3.34

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toulouse 2–1–3 Strasbourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 France Ligue 1	Strasbourg	1-2 HT 1-1	Toulouse
06/12/25 France Ligue 1	Toulouse	1-0 HT 1-0	Strasbourg
16/03/25 France Ligue 1	Strasbourg	2-1 HT 0-1	Toulouse
12/01/25 France Ligue 1	Toulouse	1-2 HT 1-2	Strasbourg
07/04/24 France Ligue 1	Toulouse	0-0 HT 0-0	Strasbourg
27/08/23 France Ligue 1	Strasbourg	2-0 HT 0-0	Toulouse

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSG	9	6	2	1	21	10	20
2	Lille	9	5	3	1	12	6	18
3	Rennes	9	5	1	3	20	19	16
4	Monaco	8	4	3	1	11	7	15
5	Lyon	8	4	2	2	13	7	14
6	Paris FC	8	4	2	2	13	9	14
7	Nice	9	4	2	3	13	12	14
8	Lens	9	4	1	4	16	13	13
9	Marseille	8	4	0	4	18	13	12
10	Lorient	8	3	3	2	7	6	12
11	Toulouse	8	2	4	2	12	11	10
12	Auxerre	8	3	1	4	12	18	10
13	Brest	8	2	3	3	14	12	9
14	Angers	8	2	2	4	9	15	8
15	Troyes	9	2	2	5	7	16	8
16	Strasbourg	8	2	1	5	12	18	7
17	Le Mans	9	1	4	4	11	18	7
18	Le Havre	9	0	2	7	9	20	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toulouse	Strasbourg
Troyes	0-0 D	6-2 W
Monaco	2-2 D	1-1 D
Brest	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Strasbourg (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toulouse

WWLDLDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Troyes France Ligue 1	0-0	0-0	4	8	D
16/10	Le Mans France Ligue 1	0-0	3-0	2	3	W
10/10	Monaco France Ligue 1	0-2	2-2	4	4	D
19/09	Le Havre France Ligue 1	0-0	3-2	6	4	W
12/09	Lorient France Ligue 1	0-2	2-2	3	1	D
03/09	Lille France Ligue 1	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
29/08	Brest France Ligue 1	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
22/08	Lyon France Ligue 1	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
10/05	Lyon France Ligue 1	1-0	2-1	7	8	W
03/05	Strasbourg France Ligue 1	1-1	2-1	3	4	W

Strasbourg

WWLWWDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Rennes France Ligue 1	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
17/10	PSG France Ligue 1	1-0	1-3	3	2	L
11/10	Nice France Ligue 1	1-1	1-2	3	2	L
19/09	Paris FC France Ligue 1	0-1	1-2	0	5	L
12/09	Monaco France Ligue 1	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
06/09	Troyes France Ligue 1	2-1	6-2	0	2	W
29/08	Lens France Ligue 1	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
21/08	Marseille France Ligue 1	0-0	0-4	4	4	L
17/05	Monaco France Ligue 1	1-3	5-4	4	3	W
13/05	Brest France Ligue 1	2-1	2-1	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toulouse win (47%). Probabilities: Toulouse 47%, draw 25%, Strasbourg 29%.

How many goals are expected in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Toulouse 1.87 · Strasbourg 1.45), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Strasbourg?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.