Football · France Ligue 1 · 24/10, 20:45

Prediction: Lens vs Paris FC

Team pages: Lens · Paris FC

Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.28Total
Lens1.7
Paris FC1.58
1X2
39% 26% 34%
Lens Draw Paris FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Lens 5-1-4 (W-D-L)
WLWWLLDLWW
Paris FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)
WLWDWWDWLW
Head-to-head
Lens 4–2–0 Paris FC (6 last)
  • Paris FC0-5Lens
  • Lens2-1Paris FC
  • Lens0-0Paris FC
  • Paris FC0-2Lens
  • Lens2-1Paris FC
  • Paris FC1-1Lens
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lens 1519 · Paris FC 1515
LensDrawParis FC
Our model40%25%35%
Market39%27%34%
Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

  • H2H favours Lens: 4-2-0.
  • High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
  • Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

LensParis FC
Goals for / against (FT)1.9 / 1.31.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.50.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)50/20/30%50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)3.8 / 6.82.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.2 / 0.33.2 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lens 4–2–0 Paris FC

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DateHomeScoreAway
14/02/26
France Ligue 1
Paris FC0-5
HT 0-2
Lens
19/10/25
France Ligue 1
Lens2-1
HT 1-1
Paris FC
02/07/22
Europe Friendlies
Lens0-0
HT 0-0
Paris FC
02/03/20
France Ligue 2
Paris FC0-2
HT 0-1
Lens
28/09/19
France Ligue 2
Lens2-1
HT 2-0
Paris FC
21/05/19
France Ligue 2 Play-Offs
Paris FC1-1
HT 0-1
Lens

Standings · France Ligue 1

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Lyon 7421 13514
2 PSG 7421 14914
3 Paris FC 7421 12714
4 Lille 7421 10514
5 Monaco 7421 10614
6 Rennes 7412 151413
7 Lorient 7322 7611
8 Lens 7313 141110
9 Marseille 7304 14109
10 Brest 7232 13109
11 Toulouse 7232 12119
12 Auxerre 7304 11179
13 Nice 7223 698
14 Strasbourg 7214 12157
15 Angers 7214 9157
16 Le Mans 7133 10156
17 Troyes 7115 5164
18 Le Havre 7025 5112

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentLensParis FC
Troyes 3-1 W 0-0 D
Lyon 2-1 W 0-0 D
Lorient 0-1 L 0-1 L
Strasbourg 1-2 L 2-1 W
PSG 0-2 L 2-1 W
Record vs common 2 W 0 D 3 L 2 W 2 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lens

WLWWLLDLWW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
17/10 Troyes
France Ligue 1
2-1 3-1 44 W
09/10 Lyon
France Ligue 1
1-0 2-1 73 W
18/09 Monaco
France Ligue 1
0-1 1-2 82 L
13/09 Le Mans
France Ligue 1
1-2 2-2 95 D
05/09 Lorient
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-1 85 L
29/08 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
1-0 1-2 64 L
22/08 Auxerre
France Ligue 1
1-0 5-2 43 W
17/05 Lyon
France Ligue 1
3-0 4-0 85 W
13/05 PSG
France Ligue 1
0-1 0-2 61 L
08/05 Nantes
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-0 83 W

Paris FC

WLWDWWDWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/10 Rennes
France Ligue 1
2-1 4-3 36 W
10/10 Lorient
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-1 95 L
19/09 Strasbourg
France Ligue 1
1-0 2-1 35 W
12/09 Lyon
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 43 D
06/09 Marseille
France Ligue 1
2-1 3-2 42 W
30/08 Nice
France Ligue 1
1-0 3-0 21 W
22/08 Troyes
France Ligue 1
0-0 0-0 23 D
17/05 PSG
France Ligue 1
0-0 2-1 32 W
10/05 Rennes
France Ligue 1
0-0 1-2 22 L
03/05 Brest
France Ligue 1
2-0 4-0 73 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lens vs Paris FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lens win (39%). Probabilities: Lens 39%, draw 26%, Paris FC 34%.

How many goals are expected in Lens vs Paris FC?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Lens 1.7 · Paris FC 1.58), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lens vs Paris FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.