Football · Mexico Liga MX · 18/07, 03:00

Prediction: Leon vs Atlas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

Leon1.42

Atlas0.94

1X2

47% 28% 24%

Leon Draw Atlas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leon 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWWWWLL

Atlas 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWDWLL

Head-to-head

Leon 3–2–1 Atlas (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon 1482 · Atlas 1498

	Leon	Draw	Atlas
Our model	47%	29%	24%
Market	48%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leon: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon	Atlas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.2	0.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.8	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.4	4 / 0.2

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 3–2–1 Atlas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
05/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-0 HT 1-0	Atlas
23/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	2-0 HT 1-0	Leon
19/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	1-2 HT 0-0	Leon
24/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	0-0 HT 0-0	Atlas
18/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	0-1 HT 0-0	Leon
25/10/23 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-1 HT 0-1	Atlas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Atlante	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atlas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico San Luis	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chivas Guadalajara	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Club America	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cruz Azul	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Monterrey	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Pachuca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leon	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Necaxa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Puebla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Santos Laguna	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tijuana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Toluca	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Juarez FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Unam Pumas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Queretaro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Tigres UANL	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon	Atlas
Toluca	1-4 L	1-1 D
Club America	2-3 L	1-0 W
Chivas Guadalajara	0-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atlas (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leon

WLLLWWWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-4	7	8	L
22/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-3	9	2	L
19/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
11/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
05/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	10	5	W
22/03	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
19/03	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-5	0	4	L
15/03	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-3	6	5	L
07/03	Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-4	4	4	L
01/03	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	9	3	W

Atlas

DDLLDWDWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
03/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
26/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/04	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
12/04	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
05/04	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/03	Chivas Guadalajara America Friendlies	0-0	0-1	0	3	L
22/03	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
15/03	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon vs Atlas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leon win (47%). Probabilities: Leon 47%, draw 28%, Atlas 24%.

How many goals are expected in Leon vs Atlas?

The model expects 2.36 goals (Leon 1.42 · Atlas 0.94), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon vs Atlas?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.