Prediction: Tijuana vs Leon
| Tijuana | Draw | Leon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 23% | 31% |
| Market | 44% | 27% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tijuana (rating 1573 vs 1458).
- H2H favours Tijuana: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Tijuana | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1 | 1.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.3 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3 | 2.4 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0.7 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Tijuana 3–1–2 Leon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 0-3 HT 0-3 | Tijuana |
| 20/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Tijuana | 5-0 HT 3-0 | Leon |
| 02/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Tijuana |
| 31/08/24 Mexico Liga MX | Tijuana | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Leon |
| 04/03/24 Mexico Liga MX | Tijuana | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Leon |
| 24/09/23 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Tijuana |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Tijuana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Toluca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Atlas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Cruz Azul | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Puebla | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 | Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Leon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Atlante | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Juarez FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 17 | Chivas Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Unam Pumas | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Tijuana | Leon |
|---|---|---|
| Chivas Guadalajara | 0-0 D | 0-5 L |
| Juarez FC | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tijuana
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 04/07 | San Jose Earthquakes Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 26/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 19/04 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 11/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 04/04 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
| 21/03 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 15/03 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 09/03 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
Leon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 22/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
| 05/04 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 22/03 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 19/03 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 4 | L |
| 15/03 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-3 | 0-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 07/03 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 2-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tijuana vs Leon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Tijuana win (45%). Probabilities: Tijuana 45%, draw 25%, Leon 30%.
How many goals are expected in Tijuana vs Leon?
The model expects 3.56 goals (Tijuana 1.97 · Leon 1.59), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Tijuana vs Leon?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.