Football · Mexico Liga MX · 19/07, 01:00
Prediction: Unam Pumas vs Pachuca
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Unam Pumas1.52
Pachuca1.34
1X2
Unam Pumas
Draw
Pachuca
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Unam Pumas
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Pachuca
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Unam Pumas
2–4
Pachuca
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Unam Pumas 1546 · Pachuca 1569
| Unam Pumas | Draw | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 40% | 27% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Pachuca: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Unam Pumas | Pachuca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.1 | 1.5 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3 | 2.3 / 4.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.6 | 3.8 / 0.8 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Unam Pumas 2–0–4 Pachuca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Pachuca |
| 15/05/26 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 26/04/26 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Unam Pumas |
| 21/11/25 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 20/07/25 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Pachuca |
| 17/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Unam Pumas |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlante | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atlas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Atletico San Luis | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Chivas Guadalajara | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Club America | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cruz Azul | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Monterrey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Pachuca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leon | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Necaxa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Puebla | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Santos Laguna | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tijuana | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Toluca | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Juarez FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Unam Pumas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Queretaro | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Tigres UANL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Unam Pumas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
3-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 22/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 18/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
Pachuca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 04/05 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 23/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 19/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/04 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 4-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 05/04 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/03 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Unam Pumas vs Pachuca?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Unam Pumas win (40%). Probabilities: Unam Pumas 40%, draw 27%, Pachuca 32%.
How many goals are expected in Unam Pumas vs Pachuca?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Unam Pumas 1.52 · Pachuca 1.34), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Unam Pumas vs Pachuca?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.