Prediction: Toluca vs Necaxa
- Necaxa0-3Toluca
- Toluca3-1Necaxa
- Toluca5-2Necaxa
- Necaxa1-3Toluca
- Necaxa3-3Toluca
- Toluca0-0Necaxa
| Toluca | Draw | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Toluca: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.2 | 1.2 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/70/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.9 | 2.5 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0.3 | 4 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 4–2–0 Necaxa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/26 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 13/07/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Necaxa |
| 09/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 5-2 HT 1-2 | Necaxa |
| 28/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Toluca |
| 11/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 3-3 HT 2-1 | Toluca |
| 02/07/23 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Necaxa |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Atlas | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Necaxa | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Toluca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 9 | Puebla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Queretaro | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Chivas Guadalajara | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Unam Pumas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Atletico San Luis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 1 |
| 14 | Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 16 | Leon | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Unam Pumas | 1-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Chivas Guadalajara | 2-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Tigres UANL | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Cruz Azul Mexico Champion of Champions |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 07/05 | Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 30/04 | Los Angeles FC CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
Necaxa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 21/03 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 14/03 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 07/03 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Necaxa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (64%). Probabilities: Toluca 64%, draw 21%, Necaxa 15%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Necaxa?
The model expects 2.84 goals (Toluca 2 · Necaxa 0.85), with a 57% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Necaxa?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.