Football · Mexico Liga MX · 02/08, 03:00

Prediction: Atlas vs Monterrey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Atlas1.25

Monterrey1.25

1X2

36% 29% 36%

Atlas Draw Monterrey

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atlas 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWLLWW

Monterrey 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDLWLW

Head-to-head

Atlas 0–2–4 Monterrey (6 last)

Atlas0-0Monterrey
Atlas1-2Monterrey
Monterrey3-1Atlas
Atlas3-3Monterrey
Monterrey4-0Atlas
Atlas1-2Monterrey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlas 1495 · Monterrey 1473

	Atlas	Draw	Monterrey
Our model	35%	30%	35%
Market	36%	28%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monterrey: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlas	Monterrey
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.4 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.5	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.30

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 3.13 ★
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.50
2	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2% Pinnacle margin 6.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +1’	2.60	3.30	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:19	3.13	3.50	2.19

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlas 0–2–4 Monterrey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	0-0 HT 0-0	Monterrey
05/01/26 America Friendlies	Atlas	1-2 HT 1-0	Monterrey
27/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	3-1 HT 1-1	Atlas
30/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	3-3 HT 2-1	Monterrey
03/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	4-0 HT 3-0	Atlas
18/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	1-2 HT 0-1	Monterrey

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tijuana	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Cruz Azul	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
3	Atlas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Club America	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Pachuca	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
6	Monterrey	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	Toluca	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
8	Necaxa	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
9	Puebla	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Chivas Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
11	Unam Pumas	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
12	Atletico San Luis	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
13	Atlante	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Tigres UANL	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
15	Queretaro	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	Leon	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	Santos Laguna	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Juarez FC	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlas	Monterrey
Santos Laguna	1-0 W	3-2 W
Cruz Azul	0-1 L	1-1 D
Chivas Guadalajara	0-1 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Monterrey (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atlas

LLDWDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
18/07	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-2	2	5	W
10/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
03/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	2	5	L
26/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
23/04	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	5	5	D
20/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
12/04	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
05/04	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/03	Chivas Guadalajara America Friendlies	0-0	0-1	0	3	L

Monterrey

LDDLLDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W
27/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
22/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-3	7	6	L
12/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
05/04	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	4	5	L
22/03	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	9	4	L
18/03	Cruz Azul CONCACAF Champions Cup	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
14/03	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
11/03	Cruz Azul CONCACAF Champions Cup	2-1	2-3	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlas vs Monterrey?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlas win (36%). Probabilities: Atlas 36%, draw 29%, Monterrey 36%.

How many goals are expected in Atlas vs Monterrey?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Atlas 1.25 · Monterrey 1.25), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs Monterrey?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.