Football · Mexico Liga MX · 02/08, 03:00

Prediction: Leon vs Pachuca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Leon1.34

Pachuca1.52

1X2

32% 27% 40%

Leon Draw Pachuca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leon 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Pachuca 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leon 2–2–2 Pachuca (6 last)

Pachuca2-1Leon
Leon1-1Pachuca
Pachuca1-2Leon
Leon0-0Pachuca
Pachuca3-2Leon
Leon4-0Pachuca

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon 1458 · Pachuca 1561

	Leon	Draw	Pachuca
Our model	32%	27%	40%
Market	32%	27%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pachuca (rating 1458 vs 1561).
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon	Pachuca
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.1	2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.5	3.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.40

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:19 +1’	2.88	3.40	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 2–2–2 Pachuca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	2-1 HT 1-0	Leon
24/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-1 HT 1-1	Pachuca
06/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	1-2 HT 1-1	Leon
14/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	0-0 HT 0-0	Pachuca
08/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	3-2 HT 1-2	Leon
11/07/23 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	4-0 HT 3-0	Pachuca

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tijuana	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Cruz Azul	2	2	0	0	5	3	6
3	Atlas	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
4	Club America	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Pachuca	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
6	Monterrey	1	1	0	0	3	2	3
6	Toluca	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
8	Necaxa	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
9	Puebla	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
10	Chivas Guadalajara	2	1	0	1	1	2	3
11	Unam Pumas	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
12	Atletico San Luis	2	0	1	1	4	5	1
13	Atlante	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Tigres UANL	2	0	1	1	3	5	1
15	Queretaro	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
16	Leon	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
16	Santos Laguna	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
18	Juarez FC	2	0	0	2	0	2	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon	Pachuca
Tijuana	0-1 L	1-3 L
Toluca	1-4 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
18/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
26/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-4	7	8	L
22/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-3	9	2	L
19/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
11/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
05/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	10	5	W
22/03	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
19/03	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-5	0	4	L
15/03	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-3	6	5	L

Pachuca

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
11/05	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
04/05	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/04	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
23/04	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	3	8	L
19/04	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	3-1	4	6	W
12/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	2-1	4-2	4	3	W
05/04	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon vs Pachuca?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pachuca win (40%). Probabilities: Leon 32%, draw 27%, Pachuca 40%.

How many goals are expected in Leon vs Pachuca?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Leon 1.34 · Pachuca 1.52), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon vs Pachuca?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.