Football · Mexico Liga MX · 01/08, 05:00
Prediction: Juarez FC vs Unam Pumas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Juarez FC1.49
Unam Pumas1.5
1X2
Juarez FC
Draw
Unam Pumas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Juarez FC
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Unam Pumas
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Juarez FC
1–2–3
Unam Pumas
(6 last)
- Unam Pumas4-2Juarez FC
- Juarez FC3-1Unam Pumas
- Juarez FC1-1Unam Pumas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juarez FC 1476 · Unam Pumas 1531
| Juarez FC | Draw | Unam Pumas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 27% | 37% |
| Market | 36% | 27% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Unam Pumas (rating 1476 vs 1531).
- H2H favours Unam Pumas: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Juarez FC | Unam Pumas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.7 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/30/50% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.7 | 1.9 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.8 | 2.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Juarez FC 1–2–3 Unam Pumas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/26 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 4-2 HT 0-2 | Juarez FC |
| 24/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Juarez FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 28/04/25 Mexico Liga MX | Juarez FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Unam Pumas |
| 13/04/25 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Juarez FC |
| 18/07/24 Mexico Liga MX | Juarez FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Unam Pumas |
| 14/01/24 Mexico Liga MX | Unam Pumas | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Juarez FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Atlas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Toluca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Puebla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Unam Pumas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Juarez FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Leon | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Chivas Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juarez FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 10/07 | Colorado Rapids Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/04 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 04/04 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 23/03 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 14/03 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
Unam Pumas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 19/07 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 1 | L |
| 12/07 | America de Cali America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 25/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 18/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 15/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 11/05 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
3-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juarez FC vs Unam Pumas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Unam Pumas win (37%). Probabilities: Juarez FC 36%, draw 27%, Unam Pumas 37%.
How many goals are expected in Juarez FC vs Unam Pumas?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Juarez FC 1.49 · Unam Pumas 1.5), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Juarez FC vs Unam Pumas?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.