Football · Mexico Liga MX · 01/08, 03:00
Prediction: Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Puebla1.01
Chivas Guadalajara1.49
1X2
Puebla
Draw
Chivas Guadalajara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Puebla
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
Chivas Guadalajara
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puebla
1–5
Chivas Guadalajara
(6 last)
- Chivas Guadalajara5-0Puebla
- Puebla0-2Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara1-0Puebla
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puebla 1427 · Chivas Guadalajara 1512
| Puebla | Draw | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 26% | 48% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1427 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puebla | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.7 / 1.7 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 4.6 | 2.4 / 7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.6 | 5 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla 1–0–5 Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 5-0 HT 2-0 | Puebla |
| 28/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 16/04/25 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Puebla |
| 26/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 07/04/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 3-2 HT 1-0 | Puebla |
| 21/10/23 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Chivas Guadalajara |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tijuana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Atlas | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Toluca | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Puebla | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Unam Pumas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 11 | Atlante | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 12 | Atletico San Luis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 14 | Juarez FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 | Queretaro | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 16 | Leon | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 17 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Chivas Guadalajara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Puebla | Chivas Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Cruz Azul | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Necaxa | 0-0 D | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puebla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 04/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 23/03 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 14/03 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 08/03 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 8 | L |
Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Correcaminos America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 23/04 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 5-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 12/04 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-4 | 7 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara win (48%). Probabilities: Puebla 25%, draw 27%, Chivas Guadalajara 48%.
How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Puebla 1.01 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.49), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Puebla vs Chivas Guadalajara?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.