Football · Mexico Liga MX · 17/08, 03:10
Prediction: Santos Laguna vs Chivas Guadalajara
Team pages: Santos Laguna · Chivas Guadalajara
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Santos Laguna0.75
Chivas Guadalajara1.71
1X2
Santos Laguna
Draw
Chivas Guadalajara
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Santos Laguna
2-0-8 (W-D-L)
Chivas Guadalajara
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santos Laguna
1–2–3
Chivas Guadalajara
(6 last)
- Chivas Guadalajara3-0Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna1-0Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara2-2Santos Laguna
- Chivas Guadalajara1-0Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna0-2Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara1-1Santos Laguna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santos Laguna 1431 · Chivas Guadalajara 1476
| Santos Laguna | Draw | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 15% | 26% | 59% |
| Market | 17% | 22% | 61% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1431 vs 1476).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santos Laguna | Chivas Guadalajara | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 0/80/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5 | 3 / 8.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0 | 4.1 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos Laguna 1–2–3 Chivas Guadalajara
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 3-0 HT 2-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 11/08/25 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 28/06/25 America Friendlies | Chivas Guadalajara | 2-2 HT 2-1 | Santos Laguna |
| 12/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 06/11/24 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 14/01/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Santos Laguna |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Chivas Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santos Laguna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire Leagues Cup |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | New York City FC Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 10/07 | America de Cali America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/06 | Annapolis Blues America Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FC Dallas Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 06/08 | Los Angeles FC Leagues Cup |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 01/08 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 26/07 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 19 | 3 | W |
| 19/07 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 04/07 | Correcaminos America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 9 | D |
| 17/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 13 | 5 | W |
| 03/05 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santos Laguna vs Chivas Guadalajara?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara win (60%). Probabilities: Santos Laguna 16%, draw 24%, Chivas Guadalajara 60%.
How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs Chivas Guadalajara?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Santos Laguna 0.75 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.71), with a 59% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs Chivas Guadalajara?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.