Football · Mexico Liga MX · 23/08, 05:00
Prediction: Cruz Azul vs Atlas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Cruz Azul1.82
Atlas0.86
1X2
Cruz Azul
Draw
Atlas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cruz Azul
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Atlas
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cruz Azul
3–3–0
Atlas
(6 last)
- Cruz Azul1-0Atlas
- Atlas2-3Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul2-0Atlas
- Atlas3-3Cruz Azul
- Cruz Azul1-1Atlas
- Atlas2-2Cruz Azul
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cruz Azul 1560 · Atlas 1507
| Cruz Azul | Draw | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 25% | 16% |
| Market | 59% | 24% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruz Azul (rating 1560 vs 1507).
- H2H favours Cruz Azul: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cruz Azul | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.2 | 1.8 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.2 / 0.2 | 4.2 / 0.6 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul 3–3–0 Atlas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Atlas |
| 03/05/26 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Cruz Azul |
| 15/01/26 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Atlas |
| 20/07/25 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 3-3 HT 2-0 | Cruz Azul |
| 12/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Cruz Azul | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Atlas |
| 07/11/24 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Cruz Azul |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Tijuana | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 5 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 6 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 7 | Unam Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Chivas Guadalajara | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 11 | Cruz Azul | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 15 | Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cruz Azul
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 22/07 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 22/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
Atlas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 10/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 23/04 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 20/04 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 12/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruz Azul win (59%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul 59%, draw 25%, Atlas 16%.
How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Cruz Azul 1.82 · Atlas 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Atlas?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.