Prediction: Queretaro vs Toluca
Team pages: Queretaro · Toluca
- Queretaro1-0Toluca
- Toluca4-0Queretaro
- Toluca5-0Queretaro
- Queretaro0-1Toluca
- Queretaro2-2Toluca
- Toluca3-1Queretaro
| Queretaro | Draw | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 28% | 47% |
| Market | 26% | 25% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours Toluca: 4-1-1.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Queretaro | Toluca | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.4 | 1.3 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.9 / 5.3 | 3.4 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.4 | 2.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Queretaro 1–1–4 Toluca
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/26 Mexico Liga MX | Queretaro | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Toluca |
| 19/10/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 4-0 HT 3-0 | Queretaro |
| 27/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 5-0 HT 4-0 | Queretaro |
| 19/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Queretaro | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Toluca |
| 13/01/24 Mexico Liga MX | Queretaro | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Toluca |
| 08/10/23 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Queretaro |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 9 |
| 2 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Unam Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlante | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Chivas Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Queretaro | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Seattle Sounders | 0-3 L | 3-0 W |
| FC Dallas | 0-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Tigres UANL | 3-2 W | 0-0 D |
| Cruz Azul | 1-1 D | 1-3 L |
| Necaxa | 3-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Queretaro (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Queretaro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Los Angeles FC Leagues Cup |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | Seattle Sounders Leagues Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 06/08 | FC Dallas Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 02/08 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 9 | W |
| 27/07 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 19/07 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 10 | L |
| 25/04 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 2-1 | 12 | 2 | W |
| 22/04 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 18/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 13/08 | FC Dallas Leagues Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Los Angeles FC Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 06/08 | Seattle Sounders Leagues Cup |
1-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 0 | W |
| 03/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Cruz Azul Mexico Champion of Champions |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 04/07 | Cancun FC America Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 31/05 | Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Queretaro vs Toluca?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Toluca win (48%). Probabilities: Queretaro 26%, draw 26%, Toluca 48%.
How many goals are expected in Queretaro vs Toluca?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Queretaro 1.09 · Toluca 1.57), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Queretaro vs Toluca?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.