Football · Mexico Liga MX · 23/08, 03:00
Prediction: Puebla vs Santos Laguna
Team pages: Puebla · Santos Laguna
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.85Total
Puebla1.63
Santos Laguna1.22
1X2
Puebla
Draw
Santos Laguna
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Puebla
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Santos Laguna
3-0-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Puebla
3–3
Santos Laguna
(6 last)
- Santos Laguna2-1Puebla
- Puebla1-0Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna0-2Puebla
- Puebla1-0Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna3-0Puebla
- Puebla2-3Santos Laguna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Puebla 1411 · Santos Laguna 1463
| Puebla | Draw | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.85 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos Laguna (rating 1411 vs 1463).
- Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Puebla | Santos Laguna | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.4 | 1 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.3 | 0.5 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/30/40% | 30/50/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.4 | 2.8 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 3.1 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Puebla 3–0–3 Santos Laguna
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Puebla |
| 26/07/25 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 03/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Puebla |
| 06/07/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 31/01/24 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Puebla |
| 08/07/23 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 2-3 HT 2-2 | Santos Laguna |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 10 |
| 2 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 5 | Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Unam Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 7 | Queretaro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 9 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlante | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Chivas Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Puebla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | San Diego FC Leagues Cup |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 10/08 | Austin FC Leagues Cup |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Portland Timbers Leagues Cup |
1-4 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
Santos Laguna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Philadelphia Union Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 10/08 | Chicago Fire Leagues Cup |
1-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | New York City FC Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 10/07 | America de Cali America Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 24/06 | Annapolis Blues America Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 27/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Puebla win (46%). Probabilities: Puebla 46%, draw 26%, Santos Laguna 28%.
How many goals are expected in Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
The model expects 2.85 goals (Puebla 1.63 · Santos Laguna 1.22), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Puebla vs Santos Laguna?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.