Football · Mexico Liga MX · 18/08, 03:00
Prediction: Necaxa vs Leon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.87Total
Necaxa1.56
Leon1.31
1X2
Necaxa
Draw
Leon
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Necaxa
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Leon
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Necaxa
1–2–3
Leon
(6 last)
- Leon2-1Necaxa
- Necaxa0-1Leon
- Necaxa2-1Leon
- Leon1-1Necaxa
- Necaxa1-2Leon
- Leon1-1Necaxa
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Necaxa 1450 · Leon 1555
| Necaxa | Draw | Leon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 27% | 31% |
| Market | 42% | 27% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leon (rating 1450 vs 1555).
- H2H favours Leon: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Necaxa | Leon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.9 | 1.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.5 | 2.7 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.7 | 4.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Necaxa 1–2–3 Leon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Necaxa |
| 16/08/25 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Leon |
| 15/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Leon |
| 22/07/24 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Necaxa |
| 01/04/24 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Leon |
| 03/09/23 Mexico Liga MX | Leon | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Necaxa |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Chivas Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Necaxa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Philadelphia Union Leagues Cup |
0-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Chicago Fire Leagues Cup |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/08 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 27/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 04/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
Leon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Inter Miami CF Leagues Cup |
0-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 09/08 | Orlando City SC Leagues Cup |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 06/08 | Nashville SC Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 12 | W |
| 25/07 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 18/07 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 8 | L |
| 22/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-2 | 2-3 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/04 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Necaxa vs Leon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Necaxa win (42%). Probabilities: Necaxa 42%, draw 27%, Leon 31%.
How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs Leon?
The model expects 2.87 goals (Necaxa 1.56 · Leon 1.31), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Leon?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.