Football · Mexico Liga MX · 18/08, 05:00
Prediction: Pachuca vs Puebla
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.98Total
Pachuca2.05
Puebla0.93
1X2
Pachuca
Draw
Puebla
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Pachuca
5-0-5 (W-D-L)
Puebla
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Pachuca
4–2–0
Puebla
(6 last)
- Pachuca2-1Puebla
- Puebla2-2Pachuca
- Pachuca2-1Puebla
- Puebla2-3Pachuca
- Puebla1-4Pachuca
- Pachuca1-1Puebla
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pachuca 1522 · Puebla 1418
| Pachuca | Draw | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pachuca (rating 1522 vs 1418).
- H2H favours Pachuca: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Pachuca | Puebla | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 0.9 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 2.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca 4–2–0 Puebla
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Puebla |
| 24/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Pachuca |
| 27/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Puebla |
| 21/09/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Pachuca |
| 21/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Puebla | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Pachuca |
| 29/10/23 Mexico Liga MX | Pachuca | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Puebla |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Tijuana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Unam Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Queretaro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
| 10 | Atlante | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Chivas Guadalajara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Pachuca | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Pachuca | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Leon | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Queretaro | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pachuca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Charlotte FC Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Columbus Crew Leagues Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 05/08 | FC Cincinnati Leagues Cup |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 12 | L |
| 27/07 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 19/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 18/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/05 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 11/05 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 04/05 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
Puebla
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | San Diego FC Leagues Cup |
1-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 10/08 | Austin FC Leagues Cup |
0-3 | 0-3 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 07/08 | Portland Timbers Leagues Cup |
1-4 | 2-5 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 01/08 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 22/07 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 25/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 22/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 19/04 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pachuca vs Puebla?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Pachuca win (62%). Probabilities: Pachuca 62%, draw 22%, Puebla 15%.
How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Puebla?
The model expects 2.98 goals (Pachuca 2.05 · Puebla 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Puebla?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.