Football · Mexico Liga MX · 30/08, 05:00
Prediction: Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL
Team pages: Santos Laguna · Tigres UANL
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.78Total
Santos Laguna1.01
Tigres UANL1.77
1X2
Santos Laguna
Draw
Tigres UANL
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Santos Laguna
1-1-8 (W-D-L)
Tigres UANL
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Santos Laguna
0–6
Tigres UANL
(6 last)
- Tigres UANL5-1Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna0-1Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL3-0Santos Laguna
- Santos Laguna0-3Tigres UANL
- Santos Laguna0-3Tigres UANL
- Tigres UANL3-2Santos Laguna
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Santos Laguna 1410 · Tigres UANL 1500
| Santos Laguna | Draw | Tigres UANL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 26% | 54% |
| Market | 21% | 25% | 55% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tigres UANL (rating 1410 vs 1500).
- H2H favours Tigres UANL: 6-0-0.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Santos Laguna | Tigres UANL | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/50/40% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 4.9 | 3.9 / 7.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 4 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Santos Laguna 0–0–6 Tigres UANL
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/26 Mexico Liga MX | Tigres UANL | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Santos Laguna |
| 31/08/25 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Tigres UANL |
| 16/03/25 Mexico Liga MX | Tigres UANL | 3-0 HT 0-0 | Santos Laguna |
| 21/07/24 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 0-3 HT 0-0 | Tigres UANL |
| 11/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Santos Laguna | 0-3 HT 0-2 | Tigres UANL |
| 31/08/23 Mexico Liga MX | Tigres UANL | 3-2 HT 1-1 | Santos Laguna |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Unam Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 15 | Pachuca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Santos Laguna | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Chivas Guadalajara | 0-1 L | 0-2 L |
| Atlas | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Atletico San Luis | 0-2 L | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Santos Laguna
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/08 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/08 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-3 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 26/07 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-3 | 2-3 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 23/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 20/04 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 12/04 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 05/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
Tigres UANL
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 16 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 9 | L |
| 26/07 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 3 | D |
| 17/07 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-2 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 03/05 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 5-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 23/04 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 19/04 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Tigres UANL win (54%). Probabilities: Santos Laguna 20%, draw 25%, Tigres UANL 54%.
How many goals are expected in Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL?
The model expects 2.78 goals (Santos Laguna 1.01 · Tigres UANL 1.77), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Santos Laguna vs Tigres UANL?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.