Prediction: Toluca vs Juarez FC
Team pages: Toluca · Juarez FC
- Toluca3-1Juarez FC
- Toluca0-0Juarez FC
- Juarez FC1-2Toluca
- Juarez FC0-2Toluca
- Juarez FC0-4Toluca
- Toluca3-2Juarez FC
| Toluca | Draw | Juarez FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| Market | 74% | 15% | 11% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Toluca (rating 1531 vs 1427).
- H2H favours Toluca: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Toluca | Juarez FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.4 | 1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/30/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 6 | 2 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.7 | 2.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Toluca 5–1–0 Juarez FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/03/26 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-1 HT 0-0 | Juarez FC |
| 30/11/25 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Juarez FC |
| 27/11/25 Mexico Liga MX | Juarez FC | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Toluca |
| 12/08/25 Mexico Liga MX | Juarez FC | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Toluca |
| 23/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Juarez FC | 0-4 HT 0-3 | Toluca |
| 14/07/24 Mexico Liga MX | Toluca | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Juarez FC |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 2 | 13 |
| 2 | Atlas | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 3 | Toluca | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Puebla | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | 10 |
| 6 | Tijuana | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Monterrey | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Unam Pumas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Queretaro | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 7 |
| 11 | Necaxa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| 12 | Cruz Azul | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlante | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Tigres UANL | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 3 |
| 17 | Santos Laguna | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Toluca | Juarez FC |
|---|---|---|
| Queretaro | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Unam Pumas | 1-2 L | 1-5 L |
| Chivas Guadalajara | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Leon | 4-1 W | 1-3 L |
| Club America | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Toluca (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Toluca
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 16/08 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 03/08 | Necaxa Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 22/07 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-2 | 9 | 2 | L |
| 19/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 11/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 04/05 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 23/04 | Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-4 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
Juarez FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 16/08 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
1-4 | 1-6 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 01/08 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-3 | 1-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 26/07 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 26/04 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 22/04 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-4 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 19/04 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 11/04 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/04 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Toluca vs Juarez FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Toluca win (73%). Probabilities: Toluca 73%, draw 16%, Juarez FC 11%.
How many goals are expected in Toluca vs Juarez FC?
The model expects 3.24 goals (Toluca 2.43 · Juarez FC 0.81), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Toluca vs Juarez FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.