Football · Mexico Liga MX · 30/08, 01:00

Prediction: Pachuca vs Chivas Guadalajara

Team pages: Pachuca · Chivas Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.18Total

Pachuca1.06

Chivas Guadalajara1.12

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Pachuca Draw Chivas Guadalajara

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Pachuca 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLWLLL

Chivas Guadalajara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLWDWW

Head-to-head

Pachuca 1–5 Chivas Guadalajara (6 last)

Chivas Guadalajara2-0Pachuca
Pachuca0-1Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara2-1Pachuca
Pachuca0-2Chivas Guadalajara
Pachuca3-0Chivas Guadalajara
Pachuca0-1Chivas Guadalajara

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Pachuca 1468 · Chivas Guadalajara 1531

	Pachuca	Draw	Chivas Guadalajara
Our model	32%	32%	36%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1468 vs 1531).
H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Pachuca	Chivas Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	3.5 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
21:23 +26’	2.70	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Pachuca 1–0–5 Chivas Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	2-0 HT 2-0	Pachuca
03/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-1 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara
23/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	2-1 HT 2-1	Pachuca
20/10/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-2 HT 0-2	Chivas Guadalajara
23/06/24 Club Friendly List	Pachuca	3-0 HT 1-0	Chivas Guadalajara
14/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-1 HT 0-1	Chivas Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	5	4	1	0	10	2	13
2	Atlas	5	4	0	1	8	5	12
3	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
4	Chivas Guadalajara	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
5	Puebla	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
6	Tijuana	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
7	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
8	Leon	5	3	0	2	7	5	9
9	Unam Pumas	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
10	Queretaro	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
11	Necaxa	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
12	Cruz Azul	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
13	Atlante	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
14	Tigres UANL	5	1	1	3	8	10	4
15	Pachuca	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Atletico San Luis	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Santos Laguna	5	0	0	5	4	11	0
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Pachuca	Chivas Guadalajara
Puebla	2-3 L	1-1 D
Toluca	2-0 W	0-2 L
Tijuana	1-3 L	5-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Pachuca

LLWWWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
02/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	6	12	L
27/07	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
11/05	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
04/05	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/04	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	8	6	L
23/04	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	3	8	L

Chivas Guadalajara

DLWDLLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
17/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	7	0	D
26/07	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	19	3	W
19/07	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
17/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
14/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
10/05	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	13	5	W
03/05	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
26/04	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Pachuca vs Chivas Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara win (37%). Probabilities: Pachuca 34%, draw 29%, Chivas Guadalajara 37%.

How many goals are expected in Pachuca vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.18 goals (Pachuca 1.06 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.12), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Pachuca vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.