Football · Mexico Liga MX · 23/08, 03:00

Prediction: Leon vs Monterrey

Team pages: Leon · Monterrey

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Leon1.4

Monterrey1.62

1X2

32% 26% 41%

Leon Draw Monterrey

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Leon 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Monterrey 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Leon 1–5 Monterrey (6 last)

Monterrey1-0Leon
Leon1-3Monterrey
Leon0-2Monterrey
Monterrey2-1Leon
Leon2-0Monterrey
Monterrey3-1Leon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leon 1539 · Monterrey 1536

	Leon	Draw	Monterrey
Our model	32%	26%	41%
Market	32%	27%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Monterrey: 5-0-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leon	Monterrey
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.5	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.1 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:19 +3’	2.90	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leon 1–0–5 Monterrey

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	1-0 HT 1-0	Leon
12/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	1-3 HT 0-2	Monterrey
21/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	0-2 HT 0-1	Monterrey
11/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-1 HT 1-0	Leon
21/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Leon	2-0 HT 1-0	Monterrey
17/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	3-1 HT 2-1	Leon

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	4	3	1	0	8	1	10
2	Monterrey	4	3	0	1	12	5	9
3	Atlas	4	3	0	1	6	5	9
4	Toluca	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
5	Tijuana	3	2	1	0	4	1	7
6	Unam Pumas	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
7	Queretaro	4	2	1	1	5	4	7
8	Cruz Azul	3	2	0	1	7	6	6
9	Necaxa	3	2	0	1	5	5	6
10	Atlante	4	1	2	1	5	5	5
11	Puebla	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
12	Chivas Guadalajara	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
13	Pachuca	3	1	0	2	4	3	3
14	Leon	3	1	0	2	3	4	3
15	Atletico San Luis	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
16	Tigres UANL	4	0	1	3	6	10	1
17	Santos Laguna	3	0	0	3	2	7	0
18	Juarez FC	4	0	0	4	2	13	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leon	Monterrey
Inter Miami CF	3-2 W	2-1 W
Orlando City SC	2-1 W	1-2 L
Nashville SC	1-0 W	2-1 W
Pachuca	1-0 W	1-3 L
Atlas	2-3 L	2-0 W
Juarez FC	3-1 W	6-1 W
Puebla	1-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Leon

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Inter Miami CF Leagues Cup	0-1	3-2	4	5	W
09/08	Orlando City SC Leagues Cup	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
06/08	Nashville SC Leagues Cup	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
02/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	3	12	W
25/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	10	2	L
18/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	5	L
26/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-4	7	8	L
22/04	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-3	9	2	L
19/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	3	1	W
11/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	4	W

Monterrey

LWLWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
13/08	Nashville SC Leagues Cup	0-1	2-1	11	3	W
09/08	Inter Miami CF Leagues Cup	0-1	2-1	4	6	W
06/08	Orlando City SC Leagues Cup	0-1	1-2	2	8	L
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	3-1	3-2	5	0	W
27/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	6	7	L
22/04	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-3	7	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leon vs Monterrey?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Monterrey win (41%). Probabilities: Leon 32%, draw 26%, Monterrey 41%.

How many goals are expected in Leon vs Monterrey?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Leon 1.4 · Monterrey 1.62), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leon vs Monterrey?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.