Football · Mexico Liga MX · 29/08, 05:00

Prediction: Tijuana vs Unam Pumas

Team pages: Tijuana · Unam Pumas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Tijuana1.28

Unam Pumas1.24

1X2

37% 29% 35%

Tijuana Draw Unam Pumas

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Tijuana 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWDWWDWL

Unam Pumas 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLWWD

Head-to-head

Tijuana 1–2–3 Unam Pumas (6 last)

Tijuana1-1Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas4-1Tijuana
Tijuana4-2Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas1-0Tijuana
Unam Pumas3-3Tijuana
Tijuana2-3Unam Pumas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tijuana 1506 · Unam Pumas 1504

	Tijuana	Draw	Unam Pumas
Our model	36%	29%	34%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Unam Pumas: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tijuana	Unam Pumas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.5	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.30

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.80

Under 2.252.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:34 +2’	2.50	3.30	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tijuana 1–2–3 Unam Pumas

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	1-1 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas
02/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	4-1 HT 3-0	Tijuana
26/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	4-2 HT 3-0	Unam Pumas
23/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-0 HT 0-0	Tijuana
10/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	3-3 HT 2-1	Tijuana
01/07/23 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	2-3 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	5	4	1	0	10	2	13
2	Atlas	5	4	0	1	8	5	12
3	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
4	Chivas Guadalajara	5	3	1	1	8	5	10
5	Puebla	5	3	1	1	9	7	10
6	Tijuana	5	3	1	1	8	7	10
7	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
8	Leon	5	3	0	2	7	5	9
9	Unam Pumas	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
10	Queretaro	5	2	1	2	6	6	7
11	Necaxa	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
12	Cruz Azul	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
13	Atlante	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
14	Tigres UANL	5	1	1	3	8	10	4
15	Pachuca	4	1	0	3	6	6	3
16	Atletico San Luis	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
17	Santos Laguna	5	0	0	5	4	11	0
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tijuana	Unam Pumas
Cruz Azul	2-1 W	1-2 L
Pachuca	3-1 W	0-3 L
Juarez FC	2-1 W	5-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tijuana (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tijuana

WWDWDWWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	4	4	L
17/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
25/07	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
17/07	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	1	7	W
26/04	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
23/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	6	8	W
19/04	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	1	4	D
11/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-1	9	5	W
04/04	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Unam Pumas

DDLWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
01/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-1	5-1	0	3	W
22/07	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
19/07	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	9	1	L
25/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
22/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
18/05	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
15/05	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
11/05	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-2	3-3	3	4	D
04/05	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-3	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tijuana vs Unam Pumas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tijuana win (37%). Probabilities: Tijuana 37%, draw 29%, Unam Pumas 35%.

How many goals are expected in Tijuana vs Unam Pumas?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Tijuana 1.28 · Unam Pumas 1.24), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Tijuana vs Unam Pumas?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.