Football · Mexico Liga MX · 06/09, 01:00

Prediction: Atletico San Luis vs Chivas Guadalajara

Team pages: Atletico San Luis · Chivas Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Atletico San Luis1.07

Chivas Guadalajara1.7

1X2

23% 26% 51%

Atletico San Luis Draw Chivas Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico San Luis 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLLDDLD

Chivas Guadalajara 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLLWDWWD

Head-to-head

Atletico San Luis 2–4 Chivas Guadalajara (6 last)

Atletico San Luis2-3Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara4-3Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis3-1Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara0-1Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis0-2Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara3-1Atletico San Luis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico San Luis 1451 · Chivas Guadalajara 1534

	Atletico San Luis	Draw	Chivas Guadalajara
Our model	23%	26%	51%
Market	23%	25%	52%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1451 vs 1534).
H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 4-0-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico San Luis	Chivas Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	3.7 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.70

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
23:23 +23’	4.00	3.70	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico San Luis 2–0–4 Chivas Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	2-3 HT 1-2	Chivas Guadalajara
27/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	4-3 HT 2-0	Atletico San Luis
27/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	3-1 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara
10/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico San Luis
05/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Atletico San Luis	0-2 HT 0-1	Chivas Guadalajara
09/07/23 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	3-1 HT 2-1	Atletico San Luis

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
3	Atlas	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	Chivas Guadalajara	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
9	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
10	Cruz Azul	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
12	Necaxa	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	Atlante	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
14	Pachuca	6	1	2	3	8	8	5
15	Tigres UANL	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
16	Atletico San Luis	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
17	Santos Laguna	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico San Luis	Chivas Guadalajara
Pachuca	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tijuana	0-0 D	5-2 W
Tigres UANL	2-2 D	2-0 W
Cruz Azul	2-3 L	1-2 L
Juarez FC	1-2 L	1-0 W
Santos Laguna	2-0 W	1-0 W
Toluca	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 4 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atletico San Luis

WDLWLLDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
17/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	5	4	L
01/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
26/07	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	3	3	D
18/07	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-3	4	3	L
26/04	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-2	1-2	4	1	L
23/04	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	7	5	W
18/04	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
13/04	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
05/04	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	9	5	W

Chivas Guadalajara

LWDLLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
23/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
17/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	7	0	D
26/07	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	19	3	W
19/07	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
17/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	8	5	L
14/05	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	1	8	D
10/05	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	13	5	W
03/05	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico San Luis vs Chivas Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chivas Guadalajara win (51%). Probabilities: Atletico San Luis 23%, draw 26%, Chivas Guadalajara 51%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico San Luis vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Atletico San Luis 1.07 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.7), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico San Luis vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.