Football · Mexico Liga MX · 05/09, 05:00

Prediction: Juarez FC vs Pachuca

Team pages: Juarez FC · Pachuca

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Juarez FC1.18

Pachuca1.65

1X2

26% 26% 47%

Juarez FC Draw Pachuca

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Juarez FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLLLL

Pachuca 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLLLDD

Head-to-head

Juarez FC 2–2–2 Pachuca (6 last)

Pachuca2-0Juarez FC
Juarez FC2-1Pachuca
Juarez FC2-2Pachuca
Juarez FC2-2Pachuca
Pachuca0-1Juarez FC
Pachuca3-2Juarez FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juarez FC 1434 · Pachuca 1499

	Juarez FC	Draw	Pachuca
Our model	26%	27%	47%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pachuca (rating 1434 vs 1499).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juarez FC	Pachuca
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.6	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.4	3.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.51
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.66 ★
2	1.95 → 1.95	Pinn 1.98

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.4% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +1’	3.50	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:23	3.51	3.66	1.98

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juarez FC 2–2–2 Pachuca

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	2-0 HT 1-0	Juarez FC
24/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-1 HT 2-1	Pachuca
19/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-2 HT 2-1	Pachuca
02/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Pachuca
10/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	0-1 HT 0-0	Juarez FC
03/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Pachuca	3-2 HT 0-0	Juarez FC

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
3	Atlas	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	Chivas Guadalajara	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
9	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
10	Cruz Azul	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
12	Necaxa	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	Atlante	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
14	Pachuca	6	1	2	3	8	8	5
15	Tigres UANL	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
16	Atletico San Luis	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
17	Santos Laguna	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juarez FC	Pachuca
Unam Pumas	1-5 L	3-0 W
Chivas Guadalajara	0-1 L	1-1 D
Puebla	0-1 L	2-3 L
Atletico San Luis	2-1 W	1-1 D
Leon	1-3 L	0-1 L
Queretaro	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Pachuca (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Juarez FC

DLLLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
16/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-4	1-6	0	0	L
01/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-3	1-5	2	3	L
26/07	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
18/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	5	3	L
26/04	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-1	4	1	W
22/04	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-4	1	7	L
19/04	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	8	1	L
11/04	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	5	5	L
08/04	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	6	4	D

Pachuca

WWWLWLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
24/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
18/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	5	0	L
02/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	6	12	L
27/07	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-2	1	5	L
19/07	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
18/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
15/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	9	4	W
11/05	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
04/05	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juarez FC vs Pachuca?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Pachuca win (47%). Probabilities: Juarez FC 26%, draw 26%, Pachuca 47%.

How many goals are expected in Juarez FC vs Pachuca?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Juarez FC 1.18 · Pachuca 1.65), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juarez FC vs Pachuca?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.