Football · Mexico Liga MX · 06/09, 03:00

Prediction: Tigres UANL vs Necaxa

Team pages: Tigres UANL · Necaxa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Tigres UANL2.12

Necaxa1.06

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Tigres UANL Draw Necaxa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Tigres UANL 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLLDLLWD

Necaxa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWLLDL

Head-to-head

Tigres UANL 3–3–0 Necaxa (6 last)

Necaxa1-1Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL5-3Necaxa
Tigres UANL2-2Necaxa
Necaxa0-0Tigres UANL
Necaxa1-2Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-0Necaxa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tigres UANL 1497 · Necaxa 1446

	Tigres UANL	Draw	Necaxa
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	61%	23%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Tigres UANL (rating 1497 vs 1446).
H2H favours Tigres UANL: 3-3-0.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tigres UANL	Necaxa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.3	2.7 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.8

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.10

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Pinn 1.60 ★
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.22
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:30 +7’	1.53	4.10	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34 +2’	1.58	4.28	5.32
01:35	1.60▲	4.22▼	5.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tigres UANL 3–3–0 Necaxa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-1 HT 1-0	Tigres UANL
18/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	5-3 HT 3-2	Necaxa
12/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	2-2 HT 0-0	Necaxa
09/05/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	0-0 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
02/03/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-2 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
07/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-0 HT 1-0	Necaxa

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
3	Atlas	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
4	Chivas Guadalajara	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
5	Toluca	5	3	1	1	8	4	10
6	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
9	Monterrey	5	3	0	2	12	7	9
10	Cruz Azul	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
12	Necaxa	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	Atlante	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
14	Pachuca	6	1	2	3	8	8	5
15	Tigres UANL	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
16	Atletico San Luis	5	0	3	2	5	9	3
17	Santos Laguna	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
18	Juarez FC	5	0	0	5	3	15	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tigres UANL	Necaxa
Atlante	2-0 W	2-1 W
Queretaro	2-3 L	1-3 L
Chivas Guadalajara	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Tigres UANL (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tigres UANL

DWWLLDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	16	4	L
02/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	11	9	L
26/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	9	3	D
17/07	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	4	7	L
10/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	5	L
03/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
26/04	Mazatlan FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	5-1	6	2	W
23/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Necaxa

LDDLWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
24/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
18/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
03/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
27/07	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	4	5	W
17/07	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	11	3	W
27/04	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-4	5	6	L
23/04	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	7	D
19/04	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	0	3	D
12/04	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	5	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tigres UANL win (61%). Probabilities: Tigres UANL 61%, draw 22%, Necaxa 17%.

How many goals are expected in Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Tigres UANL 2.12 · Necaxa 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tigres UANL vs Necaxa?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.