Football · Mexico Liga MX · 07/09, 04:00

Prediction: Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna

Team pages: Cruz Azul · Santos Laguna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Cruz Azul2.28

Santos Laguna0.9

1X2

67% 20% 12%

Cruz Azul Draw Santos Laguna

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Cruz Azul 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLLLW

Santos Laguna 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Cruz Azul 5–1 Santos Laguna (6 last)

Santos Laguna1-2Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul3-2Santos Laguna
Cruz Azul2-0Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna0-1Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-0Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna3-0Cruz Azul

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cruz Azul 1555 · Santos Laguna 1407

	Cruz Azul	Draw	Santos Laguna
Our model	68%	20%	12%
Market	67%	20%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cruz Azul (rating 1555 vs 1407).
H2H favours Cruz Azul: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cruz Azul	Santos Laguna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.5	0.9 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 6.7	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.44
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.90 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.9% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
00:44 +4’	1.36	4.50	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:48	1.44	4.90	6.21

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cruz Azul 5–0–1 Santos Laguna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	1-2 HT 0-1	Cruz Azul
17/08/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	3-2 HT 2-1	Santos Laguna
30/06/25 America Friendlies	Cruz Azul	2-0 HT 2-0	Santos Laguna
20/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	0-1 HT 0-1	Cruz Azul
03/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-0 HT 1-0	Santos Laguna
10/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	3-0 HT 1-0	Cruz Azul

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	6	5	1	0	12	2	16
2	Toluca	6	4	1	1	12	4	13
3	Tijuana	6	4	1	1	10	7	13
4	Atlas	6	4	0	2	9	8	12
5	Chivas Guadalajara	6	3	2	1	9	6	11
6	Queretaro	6	3	1	2	9	7	10
7	Leon	6	3	1	2	8	6	10
8	Puebla	6	3	1	2	9	9	10
9	Monterrey	6	3	0	3	13	10	9
10	Cruz Azul	6	3	0	3	11	11	9
11	Unam Pumas	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
12	Necaxa	6	2	1	3	8	11	7
13	Atletico San Luis	6	1	3	2	8	10	6
14	Atlante	6	1	3	2	6	8	6
15	Pachuca	6	1	2	3	8	8	5
16	Tigres UANL	6	1	2	3	8	10	5
17	Santos Laguna	6	0	1	5	4	11	1
18	Juarez FC	6	0	0	6	3	19	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cruz Azul	Santos Laguna
Atlas	0-2 L	0-1 L
Puebla	2-1 W	2-3 L
Atletico San Luis	3-2 W	0-2 L
Chivas Guadalajara	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Cruz Azul (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Cruz Azul

DWDWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L
02/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	7	3	L
22/07	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
18/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	3-2	4	3	W
25/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-1	7	3	W
22/05	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
17/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
14/05	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	6	8	D

Santos Laguna

LLLWLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	6	1	L
17/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	11	1	L
26/07	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
19/07	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-3	2-3	5	0	L
27/04	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	3	7	W
23/04	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
20/04	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	5	8	L
12/04	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-4	1	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cruz Azul win (67%). Probabilities: Cruz Azul 67%, draw 20%, Santos Laguna 12%.

How many goals are expected in Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Cruz Azul 2.28 · Santos Laguna 0.9), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Cruz Azul vs Santos Laguna?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.