Football · Mexico Liga MX · 17/10, 03:00
Prediction: Necaxa vs Atlas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.88Total
Necaxa1.28
Atlas1.6
1X2
Necaxa
Draw
Atlas
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Necaxa
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Atlas
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Necaxa
2–2–2
Atlas
(6 last)
- Necaxa0-1Atlas
- Atlas3-2Necaxa
- Atlas0-4Necaxa
- Necaxa0-0Atlas
- Necaxa2-1Atlas
- Atlas0-0Necaxa
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atlas (rating 1416 vs 1518).
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Necaxa | Atlas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 2 | 1.4 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/70/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.4 | 2.2 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.7 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Necaxa 2–2–2 Atlas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/26 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atlas |
| 28/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 3-2 HT 2-1 | Necaxa |
| 19/02/25 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Necaxa |
| 11/11/24 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Atlas |
| 15/01/24 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Atlas |
| 11/11/23 Mexico Liga MX | Atlas | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Necaxa |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 11 | 21 |
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 20 |
| 3 | Queretaro | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 20 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 19 |
| 5 | Leon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | 18 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| 8 | Tijuana | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 15 |
| 9 | Puebla | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 15 |
| 10 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 11 | Tigres UANL | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 15 | 13 |
| 12 | Pachuca | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 11 | 12 |
| 13 | Unam Pumas | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 12 |
| 14 | Atletico San Luis | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 18 | 12 |
| 15 | Atlante | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 17 | 11 |
| 16 | Santos Laguna | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 10 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 8 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | 4 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Necaxa | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Cruz Azul | 1-3 L | 2-0 W |
| Unam Pumas | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Toluca | 1-3 L | 2-5 L |
| Monterrey | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Atlante | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Necaxa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Necaxa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/09 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 24/08 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/08 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/07 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 17/07 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 3 | W |
Atlas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 26/09 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 3-2 | 11 | 4 | W |
| 20/09 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 13/09 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
0-3 | 2-5 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Atlante Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/08 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 16/08 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Monterrey Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 26/07 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Necaxa vs Atlas?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Atlas win (44%). Probabilities: Necaxa 30%, draw 27%, Atlas 44%.
How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs Atlas?
The model expects 2.88 goals (Necaxa 1.28 · Atlas 1.6), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Atlas?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.