Football · Mexico Liga MX · 25/10, 02:00

Prediction: Monterrey vs Chivas Guadalajara

Team pages: Monterrey · Chivas Guadalajara

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.05Total

Monterrey1.55

Chivas Guadalajara1.51

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Monterrey Draw Chivas Guadalajara

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Monterrey 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLLDWLDW

Chivas Guadalajara 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWDLDD

Head-to-head

Monterrey 2–1–3 Chivas Guadalajara (6 last)

Monterrey2-3Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara4-2Monterrey
Monterrey3-1Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara1-1Monterrey
Monterrey0-2Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara1-2Monterrey

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Monterrey 1508 · Chivas Guadalajara 1570

	Monterrey	Draw	Chivas Guadalajara
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	37%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1508 vs 1570).
H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 3-1-2.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Monterrey	Chivas Guadalajara
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.4	1.8 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.3	3.3 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.6	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.40

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:09 +12’	2.50	3.40	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Monterrey 2–1–3 Chivas Guadalajara

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	2-3 HT 0-1	Chivas Guadalajara
09/11/25 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	4-2 HT 3-0	Monterrey
06/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	3-1 HT 2-0	Chivas Guadalajara
29/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 HT 1-0	Monterrey
31/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Monterrey	0-2 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara
04/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	1-2 HT 0-2	Monterrey

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	6	2	4	27	21	20
6	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
7	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
8	Monterrey	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
10	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
11	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
12	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	12	3	4	5	19	16	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	12	1	1	10	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Monterrey	Chivas Guadalajara
Pachuca	2-1 W	1-1 D
Club America	1-1 D	2-2 D
Tigres UANL	0-0 D	1-1 D
Atletico San Luis	1-3 L	3-0 W
Atlas	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Monterrey (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Monterrey

LWWLLDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-1	3	7	W
11/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
26/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
20/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	6	3	W
13/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
31/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-2	1-3	14	3	L
22/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	4	L
16/08	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	4-1	6-1	10	0	W
02/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	2	10	W
27/07	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	1	5	L

Chivas Guadalajara

DWWDWWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
11/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
27/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
14/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
06/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
30/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
23/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
17/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	7	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Monterrey vs Chivas Guadalajara?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Monterrey win (37%). Probabilities: Monterrey 37%, draw 27%, Chivas Guadalajara 36%.

How many goals are expected in Monterrey vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model expects 3.05 goals (Monterrey 1.55 · Chivas Guadalajara 1.51), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Chivas Guadalajara?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.