Football · Mexico Liga MX · 26/10, 00:00

Prediction: Atlas vs Puebla

Team pages: Atlas · Puebla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.72Total

Atlas1.73

Puebla0.99

1X2

54% 26% 21%

Atlas Draw Puebla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlas 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDWDWL

Puebla 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDLDDL

Head-to-head

Atlas 4–1–1 Puebla (6 last)

Atlas1-0Puebla
Puebla2-3Atlas
Atlas3-2Puebla
Puebla1-2Atlas
Puebla2-2Atlas
Atlas2-3Puebla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlas 1499 · Puebla 1472

	Atlas	Draw	Puebla
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	25%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Atlas: 4-1-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlas	Puebla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.5	1.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.5	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.75

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 7 moves · last 03:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.76
X	3.60 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.77
2	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.56 ★

See the full journey (7)

Bet365 margin 6% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +4’	1.73	3.60	4.75
04:29 +6’	1.83▲	3.50▼	4.20▼
08:15 +5’	1.85▲	3.60▲	4.20
12:26 +4’	1.70▼	3.75▲	4.75▲
14:26 +8’	1.73▲	3.80▲	4.75
20:04 +2’	1.75▲	3.80	4.75
03:31 +2’	1.75	3.75▼	4.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:12 +20’	1.76	3.76	4.36
04:29 +5’	1.86▲	3.62▼	4.19▼
11:20 +8’	1.76▼	3.77▲	4.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlas 4–1–1 Puebla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	1-0 HT 1-0	Puebla
12/07/25 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	2-3 HT 1-1	Atlas
16/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	3-2 HT 0-1	Puebla
20/07/24 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	1-2 HT 0-2	Atlas
09/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	2-2 HT 1-2	Atlas
29/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Atlas	2-3 HT 1-2	Puebla

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	32	16	27
2	Chivas Guadalajara	13	6	5	2	20	12	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	29	22	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	28	18	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	20	17	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	21	23	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	23	17	20
8	Queretaro	12	6	2	4	16	15	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	19	16	19
10	Tijuana	12	4	5	3	17	16	17
11	Unam Pumas	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	18	22	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	14	18	14
15	Atlante	13	3	5	5	14	19	14
16	Pachuca	13	3	4	6	20	18	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	15	26	9
18	Juarez FC	13	1	1	11	8	32	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlas	Puebla
Club America	2-5 L	0-2 L
Necaxa	2-0 W	1-0 W
Tijuana	3-2 W	0-0 D
Toluca	2-5 L	0-1 L
Atlante	1-1 D	1-1 D
Tigres UANL	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Atlas (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlas

WWLDLDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-2	2-5	10	3	L
17/10	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
11/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
26/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	11	4	W
20/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	8	1	D
13/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	8	4	L
06/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
30/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
23/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-0	4	1	W
16/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	2	4	W

Puebla

WWLWLDLDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-3	1-4	2	2	L
17/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
19/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
23/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-2	6	1	W
18/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	3	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlas vs Puebla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlas win (54%). Probabilities: Atlas 54%, draw 26%, Puebla 21%.

How many goals are expected in Atlas vs Puebla?

The model expects 2.72 goals (Atlas 1.73 · Puebla 0.99), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlas vs Puebla?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.