Football · Mexico Liga MX · 26/10, 04:00

Prediction: Tijuana vs Santos Laguna

Team pages: Tijuana · Santos Laguna

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Tijuana1.65

Santos Laguna1.18

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Tijuana Draw Santos Laguna

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Tijuana 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDLDDD

Santos Laguna 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Tijuana 2–1–3 Santos Laguna (6 last)

Tijuana1-2Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna1-0Tijuana
Santos Laguna0-4Tijuana
Tijuana3-1Santos Laguna
Tijuana2-2Santos Laguna
Santos Laguna2-1Tijuana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tijuana 1487 · Santos Laguna 1552

	Tijuana	Draw	Santos Laguna
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santos Laguna (rating 1487 vs 1552).
H2H favours Santos Laguna: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tijuana	Santos Laguna
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.4	3.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.70

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.95▲	Pinn 2.00 ★
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.77
2	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +5’	1.90	3.60	3.60
15:27 +13’	1.90	3.70▲	3.70▲
05:26 +2’	1.95▲	3.70	3.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +12’	1.96	3.75	3.49
06:12 +10’	1.98▲	3.79▲	3.53▲
09:24 +58’	2.00▲	3.77▼	3.49▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tijuana 2–1–3 Santos Laguna

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	1-2 HT 0-0	Santos Laguna
25/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	1-0 HT 0-0	Tijuana
21/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	0-4 HT 0-2	Tijuana
19/08/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	3-1 HT 2-1	Santos Laguna
16/03/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	2-2 HT 0-1	Santos Laguna
05/10/23 Mexico Liga MX	Santos Laguna	2-1 HT 1-1	Tijuana

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	32	16	27
2	Chivas Guadalajara	13	6	5	2	20	12	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	29	22	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	28	18	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	20	17	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	21	23	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	23	17	20
8	Queretaro	12	6	2	4	16	15	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	19	16	19
10	Tijuana	12	4	5	3	17	16	17
11	Unam Pumas	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	18	22	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	14	18	14
15	Atlante	13	3	5	5	14	19	14
16	Pachuca	13	3	4	6	20	18	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	15	26	9
18	Juarez FC	13	1	1	11	8	32	4

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tijuana	Santos Laguna
Toluca	2-2 D	3-2 W
Puebla	0-0 D	2-3 L
Juarez FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Pachuca	2-2 D	1-0 W
Queretaro	0-1 L	5-0 W
Unam Pumas	2-0 W	2-0 W
Chivas Guadalajara	2-5 L	0-1 L
Cruz Azul	2-1 W	0-1 L
Atletico San Luis	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 5 D 2 L	6 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Santos Laguna (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tijuana

DWLWLDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-2	5	0	D
17/10	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	12	4	D
11/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
26/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
21/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	0	3	D
12/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
29/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	4	4	L
17/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

Santos Laguna

LLDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	8	5	W
18/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	2-0	5-0	3	2	W
12/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
27/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	10	5	W
21/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-2	7	3	W
14/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-1	12	8	W
07/09	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
30/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	12	6	D
23/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-3	7	1	L
17/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	5	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tijuana win (48%). Probabilities: Tijuana 48%, draw 26%, Santos Laguna 26%.

How many goals are expected in Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Tijuana 1.65 · Santos Laguna 1.18), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Tijuana vs Santos Laguna?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.