Football · Mexico Liga MX · 25/10, 04:00

Prediction: Unam Pumas vs Tigres UANL

Team pages: Unam Pumas · Tigres UANL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.42Total

Unam Pumas1.14

Tigres UANL1.28

1X2

32% 29% 39%

Unam Pumas Draw Tigres UANL

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Unam Pumas 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWLDLDWL

Tigres UANL 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDDDLWWDL

Head-to-head

Unam Pumas 1–3–2 Tigres UANL (6 last)

Tigres UANL0-1Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas1-1Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL2-1Unam Pumas
Unam Pumas1-3Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL2-2Unam Pumas
Tigres UANL1-1Unam Pumas

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Unam Pumas 1488 · Tigres UANL 1483

	Unam Pumas	Draw	Tigres UANL
Our model	32%	30%	38%
Market	33%	28%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.42 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Tigres UANL: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Unam Pumas	Tigres UANL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	0.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.6	3.8 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.05

2 (0)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 23:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.45
2	2.25 → 2.40▲	Pinn 2.57 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 4.9%

Time*	1	X	2
17:01 +18’	3.00	3.40	2.25
08:10 +4’	3.10▲	3.40	2.30▲
10:13 +3’	2.90▼	3.40	2.40▲
12:20 +3’	2.70▼	3.40	2.60▲
14:23 +2’	2.70	3.30▼	2.60
22:52 +29’	2.90▲	3.40▲	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +5’	2.83	3.41	2.42
06:14 +3’	2.86▲	3.45▲	2.44▲
11:34 +49’	2.70▼	3.45	2.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.5

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Unam Pumas 1–3–2 Tigres UANL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/01/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	0-1 HT 0-1	Unam Pumas
21/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-1 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
20/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	2-1 HT 1-0	Unam Pumas
02/09/24 Mexico Liga MX	Unam Pumas	1-3 HT 1-2	Tigres UANL
04/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	2-2 HT 1-0	Unam Pumas
11/12/23 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-1 HT 1-1	Unam Pumas

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	32	16	27
2	Chivas Guadalajara	13	6	5	2	20	12	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	29	22	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	28	18	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	20	17	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	21	23	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	23	17	20
8	Queretaro	12	6	2	4	16	15	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	19	16	19
10	Tijuana	12	4	5	3	17	16	17
11	Unam Pumas	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	18	22	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	14	18	14
15	Atlante	13	3	5	5	14	19	14
16	Pachuca	13	3	4	6	20	18	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	15	26	9
18	Juarez FC	13	1	1	11	8	32	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Unam Pumas	Tigres UANL
Santos Laguna	0-2 L	0-0 D
Atlante	2-1 W	2-0 W
Atlas	1-1 D	1-2 L
Chivas Guadalajara	0-3 L	1-1 D
Leon	3-1 W	0-2 L
Necaxa	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tigres UANL (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Unam Pumas

DDLWLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
17/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	0	3	W
12/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-3	4	3	D
27/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-1	2-3	11	3	L
20/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
14/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	4	2	L
11/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
29/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	6	3	L
24/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
16/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	6	4	D

Tigres UANL

LWDDDLWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	16	1	L
18/10	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
10/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
27/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
13/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
16/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	16	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Unam Pumas vs Tigres UANL?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Tigres UANL win (39%). Probabilities: Unam Pumas 32%, draw 29%, Tigres UANL 39%.

How many goals are expected in Unam Pumas vs Tigres UANL?

The model expects 2.42 goals (Unam Pumas 1.14 · Tigres UANL 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Unam Pumas vs Tigres UANL?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.