Football · Mexico Liga MX · 26/10, 02:00

Prediction: Queretaro vs Cruz Azul

Team pages: Queretaro · Cruz Azul

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Queretaro1.22

Cruz Azul1.71

1X2

27% 26% 48%

Queretaro Draw Cruz Azul

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Queretaro 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDWWLL

Cruz Azul 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLDDWW

Head-to-head

Queretaro 1–2–3 Cruz Azul (6 last)

Queretaro1-1Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul2-2Queretaro
Cruz Azul1-0Queretaro
Queretaro0-2Cruz Azul
Queretaro1-3Cruz Azul
Cruz Azul1-3Queretaro

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Queretaro 1529 · Cruz Azul 1521

	Queretaro	Draw	Cruz Azul
Our model	26%	26%	48%
Market	27%	25%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Cruz Azul: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Queretaro	Cruz Azul
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.3	2.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.5 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.75

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.85

2 (-0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 20:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.78 ★
X	3.50 → 3.75▲	Pinn 3.79
2	2.10 → 1.95▼	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 6.5% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:11 +7’	3.20	3.50	2.10
06:06 +16’	3.40▲	3.50	2.00▼
10:09 +12’	3.60▲	3.70▲	1.91▼
14:30 +5’	3.60	3.75▲	1.91
19:42 +24’	3.50▼	3.75	1.95▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:12 +11’	3.70	3.75	1.90
06:14 +8’	3.75▲	3.80▲	1.92▲
08:56 +22’	3.78▲	3.79▼	1.91▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.75

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Both teams to score

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We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Queretaro 1–2–3 Cruz Azul

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	1-1 HT 1-1	Cruz Azul
25/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	2-2 HT 1-2	Queretaro
24/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-0 HT 0-0	Queretaro
24/08/24 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	0-2 HT 0-1	Cruz Azul
03/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Queretaro	1-3 HT 1-3	Cruz Azul
25/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Cruz Azul	1-3 HT 1-0	Queretaro

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	12	8	3	1	32	16	27
2	Chivas Guadalajara	13	6	5	2	20	12	23
3	Cruz Azul	13	7	2	4	29	22	23
4	Toluca	13	6	4	3	28	18	22
5	Leon	13	6	3	4	20	17	21
6	Atlas	13	6	3	4	21	23	21
7	Monterrey	12	6	2	4	23	17	20
8	Queretaro	12	6	2	4	16	15	20
9	Santos Laguna	13	6	1	6	19	16	19
10	Tijuana	12	4	5	3	17	16	17
11	Unam Pumas	13	4	4	5	19	22	16
12	Atletico San Luis	13	4	4	5	18	22	16
13	Puebla	13	4	4	5	13	17	16
14	Tigres UANL	13	3	5	5	14	18	14
15	Atlante	13	3	5	5	14	19	14
16	Pachuca	13	3	4	6	20	18	13
17	Necaxa	13	2	3	8	15	26	9
18	Juarez FC	13	1	1	11	8	32	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Queretaro	Cruz Azul
Santos Laguna	0-5 L	1-0 W
Tijuana	1-0 W	1-2 L
Atlas	3-1 W	0-2 L
Toluca	1-2 L	3-3 D
Unam Pumas	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Queretaro

WDLWWDWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	2	0	L
18/10	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-5	2	2	L
11/10	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
27/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
21/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	8	7	D
12/09	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-0	4	5	W
30/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	2	3	W
22/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	7	7	L
16/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
02/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	6	9	W

Cruz Azul

LLWWWLDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	8	8	W
18/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-0	2	5	W
12/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-2	3-3	6	3	D
27/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-3	4	5	D
20/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
13/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	3-0	4-3	6	7	W
07/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
29/08	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	7	7	W
23/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-2	9	1	L
17/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Queretaro vs Cruz Azul?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cruz Azul win (48%). Probabilities: Queretaro 27%, draw 26%, Cruz Azul 48%.

How many goals are expected in Queretaro vs Cruz Azul?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Queretaro 1.22 · Cruz Azul 1.71), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Queretaro vs Cruz Azul?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.