Football · Mexico Liga MX · 17/10, 05:00

Prediction: Tijuana vs Puebla

Team pages: Tijuana · Puebla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Tijuana1.76

Puebla1.12

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Tijuana Draw Puebla

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Tijuana 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWLWLDLD

Puebla 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLWLDLD

Head-to-head

Tijuana 2–1–3 Puebla (6 last)

Tijuana0-0Puebla
Puebla4-3Tijuana
Puebla2-0Tijuana
Tijuana2-1Puebla
Tijuana3-1Puebla
Puebla3-0Tijuana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tijuana 1485 · Puebla 1478

	Tijuana	Draw	Puebla
Our model	51%	26%	23%
Market	51%	26%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Puebla: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Tijuana	Puebla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.5 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	1.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.75 ★
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.17

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +9’	1.83	3.60	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:14 +7’	1.86	3.72	4.06
16:00 +15’	1.83▼	3.75▲	4.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tijuana 2–1–3 Puebla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	0-0 HT 0-0	Puebla
18/10/25 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	4-3 HT 0-0	Tijuana
22/02/25 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	2-0 HT 1-0	Tijuana
11/11/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	2-1 HT 0-1	Puebla
20/04/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tijuana	3-1 HT 0-1	Puebla
02/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Puebla	3-0 HT 2-0	Tijuana

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	10	6	3	1	22	11	21
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25	15	20
3	Queretaro	10	6	2	2	15	8	20
4	Chivas Guadalajara	11	5	4	2	18	11	19
5	Leon	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	17	18	18
7	Cruz Azul	11	5	2	4	22	21	17
8	Tijuana	10	4	3	3	15	14	15
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
11	Pachuca	11	3	4	4	18	14	13
12	Unam Pumas	11	3	4	4	17	19	13
13	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	13	15	13
14	Santos Laguna	11	4	1	6	12	16	13
15	Atletico San Luis	11	3	3	5	15	20	12
16	Atlante	11	2	5	4	12	17	11
17	Necaxa	11	2	3	6	15	23	9
18	Juarez FC	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Tijuana	Puebla
Pachuca	2-2 D	3-2 W
Chivas Guadalajara	2-5 L	1-1 D
Cruz Azul	2-1 W	1-2 L
Leon	1-0 W	1-1 D
Tigres UANL	3-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Tijuana (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tijuana

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	6	9	D
26/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	2-1	2-3	5	4	L
21/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	0	3	D
12/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-1	13	5	L
29/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
23/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-3	2-5	4	4	L
17/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-1	5	6	W
01/08	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
25/07	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
17/07	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-1	1	7	W

Puebla

LDWWLWLDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	3	D
27/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
19/09	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
16/09	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
12/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
30/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	1	L
23/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-2	6	1	W
18/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	3	0	W
01/08	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	1	0	D
22/07	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	3	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tijuana vs Puebla?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Tijuana win (51%). Probabilities: Tijuana 51%, draw 26%, Puebla 23%.

How many goals are expected in Tijuana vs Puebla?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Tijuana 1.76 · Puebla 1.12), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Tijuana vs Puebla?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.