Football · Mexico Liga MX · 18/10, 01:07

Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL

Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara · Tigres UANL

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Chivas Guadalajara1.79

Tigres UANL0.96

1X2

56% 25% 19%

Chivas Guadalajara Draw Tigres UANL

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Chivas Guadalajara 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDWWDLD

Tigres UANL 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLLWDDDLWW

Head-to-head

Chivas Guadalajara 1–3–2 Tigres UANL (6 last)

Chivas Guadalajara2-0Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL3-1Chivas Guadalajara
Tigres UANL4-1Chivas Guadalajara
Chivas Guadalajara0-0Tigres UANL
Chivas Guadalajara1-1Tigres UANL
Tigres UANL1-1Chivas Guadalajara

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1566 vs 1497).
H2H favours Tigres UANL: 2-3-1.
High corners: 14.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chivas Guadalajara	Tigres UANL
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/80/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 7.8	3.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.83

Under 2.52.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 04:34

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.88 → 1.89▲	Pinn 1.89
X	3.41 → 3.45▲	Pinn 3.45
2	4.19 → 4.25▲	Pinn 4.25

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +35’	1.88	3.41	4.19
04:13 +22’	1.89▲	3.45▲	4.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara 1–3–2 Tigres UANL

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	2-0 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
03/05/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	3-1 HT 1-1	Chivas Guadalajara
12/04/26 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	4-1 HT 2-1	Chivas Guadalajara
18/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	0-0 HT 0-0	Tigres UANL
26/01/25 Mexico Liga MX	Chivas Guadalajara	1-1 HT 1-1	Tigres UANL
25/08/24 Mexico Liga MX	Tigres UANL	1-1 HT 0-0	Chivas Guadalajara

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	10	6	3	1	22	11	21
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25	15	20
3	Queretaro	10	6	2	2	15	8	20
4	Chivas Guadalajara	11	5	4	2	18	11	19
5	Leon	11	5	3	3	15	12	18
6	Atlas	11	5	3	3	17	18	18
7	Cruz Azul	10	5	1	4	19	18	16
8	Tijuana	10	4	3	3	15	14	15
9	Puebla	11	4	3	4	12	13	15
10	Monterrey	10	4	2	4	17	15	14
11	Tigres UANL	11	3	4	4	13	15	13
12	Pachuca	10	3	3	4	15	11	12
13	Unam Pumas	10	3	3	4	14	16	12
14	Atletico San Luis	10	3	3	4	14	18	12
15	Atlante	11	2	5	4	12	17	11
16	Santos Laguna	10	3	1	6	10	15	10
17	Necaxa	10	2	2	6	12	20	8
18	Juarez FC	11	1	1	9	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chivas Guadalajara	Tigres UANL
Atlas	1-1 D	1-2 L
Queretaro	0-2 L	2-3 L
Atletico San Luis	3-0 W	2-2 D
Santos Laguna	1-0 W	0-0 D
Puebla	1-1 D	1-0 W
Juarez FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chivas Guadalajara

WDWWDWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	7	8	D
27/09	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	13	3	L
20/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
14/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-0	6	2	W
06/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
30/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	7	4	D
23/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
17/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
01/08	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	7	0	D
26/07	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	19	3	W

Tigres UANL

DLLWDDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
27/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
19/09	Juarez FC Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	9	2	L
13/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
06/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	6	5	D
30/08	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/08	Atlante Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/08	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	16	4	L
02/08	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	1-2	2-3	11	9	L
26/07	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	2-2	9	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara win (56%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara 56%, draw 25%, Tigres UANL 19%.

How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Chivas Guadalajara 1.79 · Tigres UANL 0.96), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara vs Tigres UANL?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.