Football · Mexico Liga MX · 21/10, 02:07
Prediction: Chivas Guadalajara vs Necaxa
Team pages: Chivas Guadalajara · Necaxa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.15Total
Chivas Guadalajara2.18
Necaxa0.98
1X2
Chivas Guadalajara
Draw
Necaxa
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
2-0 10%
Recent form · 10 last
Chivas Guadalajara
4-5-1 (W-D-L)
Necaxa
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chivas Guadalajara
3–1–2
Necaxa
(6 last)
- Necaxa0-0Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara3-1Necaxa
- Necaxa2-3Chivas Guadalajara
- Necaxa3-2Chivas Guadalajara
- Chivas Guadalajara3-2Necaxa
- Necaxa1-0Chivas Guadalajara
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chivas Guadalajara (rating 1553 vs 1428).
- H2H favours Chivas Guadalajara: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chivas Guadalajara | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 6.9 | 2.2 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chivas Guadalajara 3–1–2 Necaxa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 24/09/25 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Necaxa |
| 06/07/25 America Friendlies | Necaxa | 2-3 HT 0-2 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 18/01/25 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 3-2 HT 0-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
| 23/10/24 Mexico Liga MX | Chivas Guadalajara | 3-2 HT 0-1 | Necaxa |
| 21/02/24 Mexico Liga MX | Necaxa | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Chivas Guadalajara |
Standings · Mexico Liga MX
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Club America | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Toluca | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 16 | 21 |
| 3 | Atlas | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 18 | 21 |
| 4 | Chivas Guadalajara | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 20 |
| 5 | Queretaro | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 13 | 20 |
| 6 | Leon | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 18 |
| 7 | Cruz Azul | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 22 | 21 | 17 |
| 8 | Santos Laguna | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 16 | 16 |
| 9 | Tijuana | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 16 |
| 10 | Unam Pumas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 20 | 16 |
| 11 | Puebla | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 13 | 16 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 15 | 14 |
| 13 | Tigres UANL | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 16 | 14 |
| 14 | Pachuca | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 13 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 21 | 13 |
| 16 | Atlante | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 15 | 25 | 9 |
| 18 | Juarez FC | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8 | 26 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chivas Guadalajara | Necaxa |
|---|---|---|
| Tigres UANL | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Atlas | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Club America | 2-2 D | 2-4 L |
| Unam Pumas | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Atletico San Luis | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Pachuca | 1-1 D | 3-3 D |
| Puebla | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 5 D 0 L | 0 W 3 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Chivas Guadalajara (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chivas Guadalajara
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/10 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 8 | D |
| 27/09 | Queretaro Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 13 | 3 | L |
| 20/09 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 14/09 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 30/08 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 23/08 | Tijuana Mexico Liga MX |
3-0 | 5-2 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
Necaxa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | Atlas Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 12/10 | Pachuca Mexico Liga MX |
2-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 28/09 | Club America Mexico Liga MX |
2-2 | 2-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/09 | Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Puebla Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 29/08 | Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 7 | L |
| 24/08 | Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 18/08 | Leon Mexico Liga MX |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 03/08 | Toluca Mexico Liga MX |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chivas Guadalajara vs Necaxa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chivas Guadalajara win (64%). Probabilities: Chivas Guadalajara 64%, draw 21%, Necaxa 15%.
How many goals are expected in Chivas Guadalajara vs Necaxa?
The model expects 3.15 goals (Chivas Guadalajara 2.18 · Necaxa 0.98), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chivas Guadalajara vs Necaxa?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.