Football · Mexico Liga MX · 24/10, 03:00

Prediction: Necaxa vs Juarez FC

Team pages: Necaxa · Juarez FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Necaxa1.97

Juarez FC1.29

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Necaxa Draw Juarez FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Necaxa 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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Juarez FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Necaxa 2–4–0 Juarez FC (6 last)

Juarez FC1-2Necaxa
Necaxa1-1Juarez FC
Juarez FC2-2Necaxa
Necaxa3-0Juarez FC
Juarez FC2-2Necaxa
Necaxa1-1Juarez FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Necaxa 1436 · Juarez FC 1395

	Necaxa	Draw	Juarez FC
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Necaxa (rating 1436 vs 1395).
H2H favours Necaxa: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Necaxa	Juarez FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	0.8 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.2	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	4.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.75

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +5’	1.80	3.75	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Necaxa 2–4–0 Juarez FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	1-2 HT 1-1	Necaxa
13/09/25 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-1 HT 0-1	Juarez FC
16/04/25 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-2 HT 1-0	Necaxa
25/08/24 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	3-0 HT 1-0	Juarez FC
04/02/24 Mexico Liga MX	Juarez FC	2-2 HT 1-1	Necaxa
17/09/23 Mexico Liga MX	Necaxa	1-1 HT 1-1	Juarez FC

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	6	2	4	27	21	20
6	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
7	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
8	Monterrey	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
10	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
11	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
12	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	12	3	4	5	19	16	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	12	1	1	10	8	31	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Necaxa	Juarez FC
Pachuca	3-3 D	0-2 L
Club America	2-4 L	1-2 L
Tigres UANL	1-1 D	2-0 W
Cruz Azul	1-3 L	0-5 L
Unam Pumas	1-1 D	1-5 L
Leon	1-2 L	1-2 L
Toluca	1-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Necaxa (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Necaxa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	10	2	L
12/10	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	2-1	3-3	3	8	D
28/09	Club America Mexico Liga MX	2-2	2-4	3	5	L
20/09	Atletico San Luis Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-3	5	2	L
12/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-1	8	4	L
06/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
29/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-3	7	7	L
24/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
18/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-2	7	4	L
03/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	1-2	1-3	2	5	L

Juarez FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-5	8	5	L
11/10	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	9	9	D
28/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
19/09	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	2-0	2	2	W
14/09	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-2	6	8	L
05/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	10	L
31/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-4	3	2	L
22/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
16/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-4	1-6	0	0	L
01/08	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-3	1-5	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Necaxa vs Juarez FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Necaxa win (52%). Probabilities: Necaxa 52%, draw 24%, Juarez FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Necaxa vs Juarez FC?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Necaxa 1.97 · Juarez FC 1.29), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Juarez FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.