Football · Mexico Liga MX · 24/10, 05:00

Prediction: Atlante vs Atletico San Luis

Team pages: Atlante · Atletico San Luis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Atlante1.46

Atletico San Luis1.34

1X2

39% 27% 34%

Atlante Draw Atletico San Luis

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlante 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WDLDDLDWLL

Atletico San Luis 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLDWLLWWLD

Head-to-head

Atlante 2–1–3 Atletico San Luis (6 last)

Atletico San Luis0-0Atlante
Atlante2-0Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis3-0Atlante
Atlante2-3Atletico San Luis
Atlante3-1Atletico San Luis
Atletico San Luis2-0Atlante

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlante 1460 · Atletico San Luis 1501

	Atlante	Draw	Atletico San Luis
Our model	39%	28%	33%
Market	40%	27%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Atletico San Luis (rating 1460 vs 1501).
H2H favours Atletico San Luis: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlante	Atletico San Luis
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.7	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.4	1.7 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +3’	2.35	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlante 2–1–3 Atletico San Luis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/19 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atletico San Luis	0-0 HT 0-0	Atlante
26/11/18 Mexico Liga de Ascenso Apertura	Atlante	2-0 HT 1-0	Atletico San Luis
23/11/18 Mexico Liga de Ascenso Apertura	Atletico San Luis	3-0 HT 2-0	Atlante
06/10/18 Mexico Liga de Ascenso Apertura	Atlante	2-3 HT 0-1	Atletico San Luis
27/01/18 Mexico Liga de Expansion	Atlante	3-1 HT 1-0	Atletico San Luis
12/08/17 Mexico Liga de Ascenso Apertura	Atletico San Luis	2-0 HT 0-0	Atlante

Standings · Mexico Liga MX

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Club America	11	7	3	1	27	14	24
2	Toluca	12	6	3	3	26	16	21
3	Atlas	12	6	3	3	19	18	21
4	Chivas Guadalajara	12	5	5	2	19	12	20
5	Cruz Azul	12	6	2	4	27	21	20
6	Queretaro	11	6	2	3	15	13	20
7	Leon	12	5	3	4	18	17	18
8	Monterrey	11	5	2	4	19	16	17
9	Santos Laguna	12	5	1	6	17	16	16
10	Tijuana	11	4	4	3	15	14	16
11	Unam Pumas	12	4	4	4	19	20	16
12	Puebla	12	4	4	4	12	13	16
13	Tigres UANL	12	3	5	4	14	16	14
14	Pachuca	12	3	4	5	19	16	13
15	Atletico San Luis	12	3	4	5	16	21	13
16	Atlante	12	2	5	5	13	19	11
17	Necaxa	12	2	3	7	15	25	9
18	Juarez FC	12	1	1	10	8	31	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlante	Atletico San Luis
Unam Pumas	1-2 L	3-2 W
Monterrey	4-2 W	3-1 W
Pachuca	0-3 L	1-1 D
Leon	1-1 D	0-2 L
Toluca	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Atletico San Luis (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlante

WDLDDLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	10	3	L
11/10	Queretaro Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-2	8	4	L
26/09	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	1-1	4-2	2	3	W
19/09	Puebla Mexico Liga MX	1-0	1-1	11	1	D
12/09	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-3	0-3	5	6	L
06/09	Atlas Mexico Liga MX	0-1	1-1	1	5	D
29/08	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
22/08	Tigres UANL Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	1	1	L
16/08	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	8	2	D
02/08	Cruz Azul Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-2	5	3	W

Atletico San Luis

DLDWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Toluca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	2	0	D
12/10	Santos Laguna Mexico Liga MX	1-1	1-2	6	1	L
27/09	Unam Pumas Mexico Liga MX	1-0	3-2	2	3	W
20/09	Necaxa Mexico Liga MX	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
15/09	Leon Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
06/09	Chivas Guadalajara Mexico Liga MX	0-2	0-3	3	1	L
31/08	Monterrey Mexico Liga MX	2-0	3-1	1	3	W
24/08	Pachuca Mexico Liga MX	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
17/08	Club America Mexico Liga MX	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
01/08	Tijuana Mexico Liga MX	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlante vs Atletico San Luis?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlante win (39%). Probabilities: Atlante 39%, draw 27%, Atletico San Luis 34%.

How many goals are expected in Atlante vs Atletico San Luis?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Atlante 1.46 · Atletico San Luis 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlante vs Atletico San Luis?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.