Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 07/08, 20:00

Prediction: Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Cambuur Leeuwarden1.66

Excelsior1.65

1X2

38% 25% 37%

Cambuur Leeuwarden Draw Excelsior

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Cambuur Leeuwarden 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Excelsior 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Cambuur Leeuwarden 2–4 Excelsior (6 last)

Excelsior3-2Cambuur Leeuwarden
Cambuur Leeuwarden0-1Excelsior
Cambuur Leeuwarden1-0Excelsior
Excelsior0-1Cambuur Leeuwarden
Excelsior4-1Cambuur Leeuwarden
Cambuur Leeuwarden0-2Excelsior

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1464 · Excelsior 1572

	Cambuur Leeuwarden	Draw	Excelsior
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Excelsior (rating 1464 vs 1572).
H2H favours Excelsior: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Cambuur Leeuwarden	Excelsior
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	2.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	1.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/33/44%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5	1.8 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	1.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.02

Under 31.77

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.58 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.67
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:57 +5’	2.45	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:02	2.58	3.67	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Cambuur Leeuwarden 2–0–4 Excelsior

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/26 Europe Friendlies	Excelsior	3-2 HT 2-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
02/08/25 Club Friendly List	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0-1 HT 0-1	Excelsior
17/01/25 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	1-0 HT 1-0	Excelsior
26/10/24 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Excelsior	0-1 HT 0-1	Cambuur Leeuwarden
19/03/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Excelsior	4-1 HT 4-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
06/08/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0-2 HT 0-2	Excelsior

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Go Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NEC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Cambuur Leeuwarden	Excelsior
FC Utrecht	1-0 W	5-0 W
De Graafschap	1-3 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Excelsior (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Cambuur Leeuwarden

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bologna Club Friendly List	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/07	Volos NFC Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
24/07	FC Utrecht Club Friendly List	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/07	Roda JC Europe Friendlies	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/07	Excelsior Europe Friendlies	0-2	2-3	7	0	L
17/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
10/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
06/04	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
03/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	6	L
24/03	FC Emmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie	3-1	4-2	4	4	W

Excelsior

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	De Graafschap Europe Friendlies	3-0	5-1	1	0	W
18/07	NAC Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-1	6	0	W
04/07	Cambuur Leeuwarden Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-2	0	0	W
17/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	2	4	W
10/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
02/05	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-2	8	0	W
26/04	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	5-0	3	3	W
12/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	2	1	D
04/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	0	L
20/03	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-1	1	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Cambuur Leeuwarden win (38%). Probabilities: Cambuur Leeuwarden 38%, draw 25%, Excelsior 37%.

How many goals are expected in Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Cambuur Leeuwarden 1.66 · Excelsior 1.65), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Cambuur Leeuwarden vs Excelsior?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.