Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 15/08, 20:00
Prediction: Excelsior vs PSV
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.12Total
Excelsior1.54
PSV2.58
1X2
Excelsior
Draw
PSV
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 61%
Most likely score
1-2
Recent form · 10 last
Excelsior
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
PSV
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Excelsior
0–1–5
PSV
(6 last)
- PSV5-1Excelsior
- Excelsior1-2PSV
- PSV3-3Excelsior
- Excelsior0-2PSV
- PSV3-1Excelsior
- PSV4-0Excelsior
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Excelsior 1570 · PSV 1532
| Excelsior | Draw | PSV | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 21% | 19% | 59% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.12 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours PSV: 5-1-0.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Excelsior | PSV | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 1.3 | 2.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.6 / 0.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.7 | 2.8 / 5.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.1 / 0.1 | 2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Excelsior 0–1–5 PSV
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 5-1 HT 4-1 | Excelsior |
| 27/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 1-2 HT 1-1 | PSV |
| 14/01/25 Netherlands Cup | PSV | 3-3 HT 0-1 | Excelsior |
| 02/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Excelsior | 0-2 HT 0-0 | PSV |
| 13/01/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Excelsior |
| 08/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | PSV | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Excelsior |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | AZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | NEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Excelsior
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie |
3-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 01/08 | De Graafschap Europe Friendlies |
3-0 | 5-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | NAC Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 04/07 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 17/05 | Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 3-2 | 8 | 0 | W |
| 26/04 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 5-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 12/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/04 | NEC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 0 | L |
PSV
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 2-2 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 02/08 | AZ Netherlands Super Cup |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 28/07 | FC Eindhoven Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 25/07 | Villarreal Elite Club Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 11/07 | Rakow Czestochowa Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Antwerp Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 5-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 23/04 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 6-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Excelsior vs PSV?
According to our model, the most likely result is an PSV win (59%). Probabilities: Excelsior 20%, draw 21%, PSV 59%.
How many goals are expected in Excelsior vs PSV?
The model expects 4.12 goals (Excelsior 1.54 · PSV 2.58), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs PSV?
The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.