Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 15/08, 21:00

Prediction: Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Leeuwarden

Team pages: Fortuna Sittard · Cambuur Leeuwarden

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Fortuna Sittard1.93

Cambuur Leeuwarden1.33

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Fortuna Sittard Draw Cambuur Leeuwarden

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fortuna Sittard 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Cambuur Leeuwarden 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Fortuna Sittard 4–2 Cambuur Leeuwarden (6 last)

Cambuur Leeuwarden1-2Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-4Cambuur Leeuwarden
Cambuur Leeuwarden2-1Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-0Cambuur Leeuwarden
Fortuna Sittard2-1Cambuur Leeuwarden
Fortuna Sittard3-2Cambuur Leeuwarden

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fortuna Sittard 1486 · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1427

	Fortuna Sittard	Draw	Cambuur Leeuwarden
Our model	51%	24%	25%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Fortuna Sittard (rating 1486 vs 1427).
H2H favours Fortuna Sittard: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fortuna Sittard	Cambuur Leeuwarden
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.3 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	11/33/56%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4	2.3 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.90

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.23
2	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.32 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:22 +5’	1.85	3.90	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:25 +3’	1.72	4.20	4.23
20:19	1.70▼	4.23▲	4.32▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fortuna Sittard 4–0–2 Cambuur Leeuwarden

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/01/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	1-2 HT 1-0	Fortuna Sittard
20/08/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-4 HT 1-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
26/02/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Cambuur Leeuwarden	2-1 HT 1-1	Fortuna Sittard
16/10/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-0 HT 0-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
19/12/18 Netherlands Cup	Fortuna Sittard	2-1 HT 1-0	Cambuur Leeuwarden
23/03/18 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Fortuna Sittard	3-2 HT 2-2	Cambuur Leeuwarden

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Excelsior	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
2	Go Ahead Eagles	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
3	AZ	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Telstar	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Fortuna Sittard	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	PSV	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
7	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	NEC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
16	ADO Den Haag	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	Willem II	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	1	0	0	1	0	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fortuna Sittard

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
31/07	Apoel Nicosia Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
25/07	Metz Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-3	8	4	L
17/07	Olympiacos Europe Friendlies	0-2	1-3	5	0	L
11/07	Genk Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	0	0	W
03/07	Lierse Kempenzonen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
17/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
10/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	6	1	W
03/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
25/04	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-2	0	4	L

Cambuur Leeuwarden

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/08	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-3	0-4	5	0	L
01/08	Bologna Club Friendly List	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
28/07	Volos NFC Europe Friendlies	1-1	1-2	6	4	L
24/07	FC Utrecht Club Friendly List	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/07	Roda JC Europe Friendlies	–	0-0	–	–	D
04/07	Excelsior Europe Friendlies	0-2	2-3	7	0	L
17/04	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-2	1-3	2	6	L
10/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
06/04	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	6	3	D
03/04	VVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-1	0-3	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Leeuwarden?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Fortuna Sittard win (51%). Probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 51%, draw 24%, Cambuur Leeuwarden 25%.

How many goals are expected in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Leeuwarden?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Fortuna Sittard 1.93 · Cambuur Leeuwarden 1.33), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs Cambuur Leeuwarden?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.