Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 16/08, 16:45
Prediction: Ajax vs Heerenveen
Team pages: Ajax · Heerenveen
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.99Total
Ajax2.06
Heerenveen0.93
1X2
Ajax
Draw
Heerenveen
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ajax
8-1-1 (W-D-L)
Heerenveen
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ajax
3–2–1
Heerenveen
(6 last)
- Heerenveen0-0Ajax
- Ajax1-1Heerenveen
- Heerenveen0-2Ajax
- Ajax1-0Heerenveen
- Heerenveen3-2Ajax
- Ajax4-1Heerenveen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ajax 1585 · Heerenveen 1550
| Ajax | Draw | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 22% | 15% |
| Market | 63% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.99 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Ajax: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 13 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ajax | Heerenveen | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 0.9 | 2 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 8.2 | 2 / 4.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.2 / 0.2 | 2.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ajax 3–2–1 Heerenveen
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Ajax |
| 01/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Heerenveen |
| 19/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Ajax |
| 11/08/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Heerenveen |
| 11/02/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Heerenveen | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Ajax |
| 05/11/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | Ajax | 4-1 HT 2-1 | Heerenveen |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | Ajax | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | AZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Groningen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | FC Utrecht | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | NEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | FC Twente | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 13 | Sparta Rotterdam | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ajax
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 06/08 | Shelbourne UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-0 | 3-1 | 14 | 2 | W |
| 02/08 | FC Volendam Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 30/07 | Vojvodina UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
1-1 | 4-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 26/07 | Burnley Elite Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Vojvodina UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
2-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Olympiacos Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 15/07 | Bochum Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 10/07 | AEK Larnaca Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 04/07 | Panathinaikos Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
Heerenveen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Volos NFC Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 17/07 | Club Brugge Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 3-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 03/07 | De Graafschap Europe Friendlies |
4-1 | 7-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/05 | FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-3 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 11/05 | NAC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 03/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 12/04 | AZ Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ajax vs Heerenveen?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ajax win (62%). Probabilities: Ajax 62%, draw 22%, Heerenveen 16%.
How many goals are expected in Ajax vs Heerenveen?
The model expects 2.99 goals (Ajax 2.06 · Heerenveen 0.93), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Ajax vs Heerenveen?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.