Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/08, 18:45

Prediction: Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Go Ahead Eagles1.99

Willem II1.17

1X2

55% 24% 21%

Go Ahead Eagles Draw Willem II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Go Ahead Eagles 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWWWLLWW

Willem II 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLWDWW

Head-to-head

Go Ahead Eagles 3–3 Willem II (6 last)

Go Ahead Eagles1-0Willem II
Willem II2-0Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles4-0Willem II
Willem II0-1Go Ahead Eagles
Willem II2-0Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles0-1Willem II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Go Ahead Eagles 1535 · Willem II 1587

	Go Ahead Eagles	Draw	Willem II
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	55%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Willem II (rating 1535 vs 1587).
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Go Ahead Eagles	Willem II
Goals for / against (FT)	3.9 / 1.5	1.5 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/22/56%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	2.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.90

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.77

2 (+0.75)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.90 → 3.90	Pinn 4.24
2	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.94 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.7% Pinnacle margin 6.1%

Time*	1	X	2
01:27	1.67	3.90	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:27	1.61	4.24	4.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Go Ahead Eagles 3–0–3 Willem II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	1-0 HT 0-0	Willem II
18/08/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Willem II	2-0 HT 2-0	Go Ahead Eagles
08/04/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	4-0 HT 2-0	Willem II
27/11/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	Willem II	0-1 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
16/04/17 Netherlands Eredivisie	Willem II	2-0 HT 0-0	Go Ahead Eagles
25/11/16 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	0-1 HT 0-0	Willem II

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Go Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NEC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Go Ahead Eagles	Willem II
OFI Crete	4-0 W	2-1 W
Almere City FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Go Ahead Eagles

DLLWWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Luton Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
25/07	OFI Crete Europe Friendlies	0-0	4-0	2	2	W
18/07	Lommel Club Friendly List	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
11/07	Apollon Limassol Europe Friendlies	0-2	0-3	6	0	L
08/07	Almere City FC Europe Friendlies	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
04/07	Top Oss Europe Friendlies	4-1	4-1	4	0	W
27/06	SV Terwolde Club Friendly List	–	23-0	–	–	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
03/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D

Willem II

WWDWWLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	OFI Crete Europe Friendlies	2-0	2-1	0	0	W
25/07	KV Mechelen Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
11/07	FC Eindhoven Europe Friendlies	1-2	2-2	8	0	D
23/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
20/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
16/05	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
13/05	Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	1-0	1	1	W
09/05	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
05/05	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	5	W
24/04	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	7	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Go Ahead Eagles win (55%). Probabilities: Go Ahead Eagles 55%, draw 24%, Willem II 21%.

How many goals are expected in Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Go Ahead Eagles 1.99 · Willem II 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Go Ahead Eagles vs Willem II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.