Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 08/08, 21:00

Prediction: AZ vs ADO Den Haag

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

AZ2.36

ADO Den Haag1.15

1X2

63% 21% 16%

AZ Draw ADO Den Haag

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

AZ 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

DWDDDDDDWW

ADO Den Haag 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWLWWWWD

Head-to-head

AZ 3–1–2 ADO Den Haag (6 last)

AZ2-1ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag2-2AZ
ADO Den Haag1-0AZ
AZ4-0ADO Den Haag
ADO Den Haag0-1AZ
AZ2-3ADO Den Haag

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AZ 1548 · ADO Den Haag 1587

	AZ	Draw	ADO Den Haag
Our model	63%	20%	16%
Market	63%	22%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours AZ: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AZ	ADO Den Haag
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.5	2.6 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6	2.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.02

2 (+1.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Pinn 4.79 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.04

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 6.3%

Time*	1	X	2
01:29 +3’	1.48	4.20	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:32	1.45	4.79	6.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AZ 3–1–2 ADO Den Haag

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/21 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-1 HT 0-0	ADO Den Haag
25/10/20 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	2-2 HT 0-1	AZ
29/08/20 Europe Friendlies	ADO Den Haag	1-0 HT 1-0	AZ
07/03/20 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	4-0 HT 2-0	ADO Den Haag
22/09/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	ADO Den Haag	0-1 HT 0-0	AZ
13/04/19 Netherlands Eredivisie	AZ	2-3 HT 0-1	ADO Den Haag

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Go Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NEC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

AZ

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Olympiacos Europe Friendlies	0-2	3-2	6	5	W
22/07	Genk Elite Club Friendlies	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
18/07	Zulte-Waregem Europe Friendlies	0-1	1-1	18	3	D
04/07	Gent Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-3	1	0	D
17/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	3-3	7	2	D
10/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
03/05	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
23/04	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
19/04	NEC Netherlands Cup	1-0	5-1	2	6	W
16/04	Shakhtar Donetsk UEFA Conference League	0-0	2-2	3	8	D

ADO Den Haag

WWWWLWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Asteras Tripolis Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	1	D
24/07	Lommel Europe Friendlies	2-0	4-0	6	1	W
18/07	KV Mechelen Europe Friendlies	0-1	3-2	–	–	W
24/04	FC Den Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	3-1	8	0	W
17/04	RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	5-1	9	3	W
12/04	FC Dordrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
06/04	FC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	4-0	2	2	W
03/04	Ajax Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	2-2	4-2	8	6	W
22/03	De Graafschap Netherlands Eerste Divisie	1-0	2-1	7	3	W
17/03	FC Utrecht Reserves Netherlands Eerste Divisie	0-0	1-0	5	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AZ vs ADO Den Haag?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AZ win (63%). Probabilities: AZ 63%, draw 21%, ADO Den Haag 16%.

How many goals are expected in AZ vs ADO Den Haag?

The model expects 3.51 goals (AZ 2.36 · ADO Den Haag 1.15), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AZ vs ADO Den Haag?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.