Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 09/08, 14:30

Prediction: FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

FC Groningen1.38

FC Utrecht1.2

1X2

40% 28% 32%

FC Groningen Draw FC Utrecht

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Groningen 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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FC Utrecht 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC Groningen 2–4 FC Utrecht (6 last)

FC Groningen1-2FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht0-1FC Groningen
FC Utrecht3-1FC Groningen
FC Groningen0-1FC Utrecht
FC Groningen1-2FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht0-3FC Groningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Groningen 1471 · FC Utrecht 1501

	FC Groningen	Draw	FC Utrecht
Our model	40%	29%	31%
Market	41%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Utrecht: 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Groningen	FC Utrecht
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.7	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.50

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Pinn 2.38 ★
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.88	Pinn 2.94

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.8% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +3’	2.30	3.50	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:34	2.38	3.40	2.94

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Groningen 2–0–4 FC Utrecht

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Utrecht
14/09/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
13/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	3-1 HT 3-1	FC Groningen
20/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Utrecht
07/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Utrecht
23/12/22 Europe Friendlies	FC Utrecht	0-3 HT 0-2	FC Groningen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Go Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NEC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Groningen	FC Utrecht
Ajax	0-2 L	0-0 D
Excelsior	2-3 L	0-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Groningen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Valladolid Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
25/07	Volos NFC Europe Friendlies	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
24/07	FC Volendam Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-4	6	1	L
18/07	AEK Athens Club Friendly List	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
11/07	FC Emmen Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-2	5	0	W
08/07	Heracles Europe Friendlies	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
21/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
17/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-3	5	0	L

FC Utrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Sevilla Europe Friendlies	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
24/07	Cambuur Leeuwarden Club Friendly List	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
27/06	De Graafschap Europe Friendlies	1-2	1-2	7	0	L
24/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-2	9	1	W
17/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
10/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
02/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/04	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
11/04	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Groningen win (40%). Probabilities: FC Groningen 40%, draw 28%, FC Utrecht 32%.

How many goals are expected in FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht?

The model expects 2.58 goals (FC Groningen 1.38 · FC Utrecht 1.2), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs FC Utrecht?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.