Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 09/08, 16:45

Prediction: Heerenveen vs FC Twente

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

Heerenveen1.62

FC Twente1.94

1X2

31% 24% 45%

Heerenveen Draw FC Twente

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Heerenveen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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FC Twente 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Heerenveen 0–2–4 FC Twente (6 last)

FC Twente5-0Heerenveen
Heerenveen1-2FC Twente
Heerenveen3-3FC Twente
FC Twente2-0Heerenveen
Heerenveen3-3FC Twente
FC Twente1-0Heerenveen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Heerenveen 1536 · FC Twente 1523

	Heerenveen	Draw	FC Twente
Our model	32%	24%	45%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Twente: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Heerenveen	FC Twente
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.6	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	3.3 / 7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.08
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.16 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:32 +4’	3.00	3.75	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:36	3.08	3.74	2.16

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Heerenveen 0–2–4 FC Twente

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	5-0 HT 2-0	Heerenveen
24/08/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Twente
09/02/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	3-3 HT 1-2	FC Twente
17/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	2-0 HT 2-0	Heerenveen
03/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Heerenveen	3-3 HT 2-3	FC Twente
30/09/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	1-0 HT 0-0	Heerenveen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	ADO Den Haag	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	AZ	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Excelsior	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Groningen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Utrecht	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Feyenoord	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Fortuna Sittard	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Go Ahead Eagles	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NEC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PEC Zwolle	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	PSV	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cambuur Leeuwarden	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Heerenveen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Telstar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sparta Rotterdam	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Willem II	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Heerenveen

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Volos NFC Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-2	3	2	W
17/07	Club Brugge Europe Friendlies	2-1	3-2	0	0	W
03/07	De Graafschap Europe Friendlies	4-1	7-2	–	–	W
21/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-3	6	1	L
17/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	10	3	D
11/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	2	1	L
03/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
25/04	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
05/04	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	4-1	8	1	W

FC Twente

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Genk Elite Club Friendlies	0-2	1-2	10	3	L
30/07	Ferencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-1	2-2	8	5	D
24/07	FC Emmen Europe Friendlies	2-0	3-0	3	0	W
23/07	Ferencvarosi TC UEFA Europa League Qualifying	1-1	1-2	4	0	L
18/07	Gent Club Friendly List	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
18/07	Gent Club Friendly List	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
11/07	PAOK Salonika Europe Friendlies	1-1	3-2	8	2	W
04/07	Aberdeen Europe Friendlies	1-0	1-0	5	1	W
17/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	9	2	L
10/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	4-0	9	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Heerenveen vs FC Twente?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Twente win (45%). Probabilities: Heerenveen 31%, draw 24%, FC Twente 45%.

How many goals are expected in Heerenveen vs FC Twente?

The model expects 3.56 goals (Heerenveen 1.62 · FC Twente 1.94), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Heerenveen vs FC Twente?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.