Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 15/08, 16:30
Prediction: Willem II vs NEC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.14Total
Willem II1.08
NEC2.06
1X2
Willem II
Draw
NEC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 62%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Willem II
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
NEC
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Willem II
1–3–2
NEC
(6 last)
- NEC1-1Willem II
- Willem II4-1NEC
- Willem II0-1NEC
- NEC0-0Willem II
- Willem II0-1NEC
- NEC0-0Willem II
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Willem II 1562 · NEC 1479
| Willem II | Draw | NEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 18% | 23% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 22% | 60% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Willem II (rating 1562 vs 1479).
- H2H favours NEC: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Willem II | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/30/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 4.1 / 7.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.2 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Willem II 1–3–2 NEC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Willem II |
| 22/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 4-1 HT 2-1 | NEC |
| 22/12/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-1 HT 0-1 | NEC |
| 12/09/21 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Willem II |
| 15/01/17 Netherlands Eredivisie | Willem II | 0-1 HT 0-0 | NEC |
| 25/09/16 Netherlands Eredivisie | NEC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Willem II |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | AZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | NEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Willem II
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 1-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | OFI Crete Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | KV Mechelen Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 11/07 | FC Eindhoven Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 8 | 0 | D |
| 23/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie Play-Offs |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Almere City FC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 09/05 | RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 05/05 | RKC Netherlands Eerste Divisie |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
NEC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 1-2 | 13 | 4 | L |
| 04/08 | Olympiacos UEFA Champions League Qualifying |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 31/07 | Sevilla Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 25/07 | Elversberg Europe Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Al Fayha World Club Friendlies |
3-0 | 7-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 14/07 | V-Varen Nagasaki World Club Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 9 | 0 | W |
| 11/07 | Anderlecht Europe Friendlies |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 08/07 | MSV Duisburg Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 01/07 | De Treffers Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 2-1 | 13 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Willem II vs NEC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an NEC win (59%). Probabilities: Willem II 18%, draw 22%, NEC 59%.
How many goals are expected in Willem II vs NEC?
The model expects 3.14 goals (Willem II 1.08 · NEC 2.06), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs NEC?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.