Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 15/08, 18:45
Prediction: FC Utrecht vs AZ
Team pages: FC Utrecht · AZ
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
FC Utrecht1.57
AZ1.49
1X2
FC Utrecht
Draw
AZ
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Utrecht
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
AZ
4-6-0 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Utrecht
2–3–1
AZ
(6 last)
- FC Utrecht2-0AZ
- AZ4-1FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht0-0AZ
- AZ1-2FC Utrecht
- AZ3-3FC Utrecht
- FC Utrecht1-1AZ
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Utrecht 1487 · AZ 1562
| FC Utrecht | Draw | AZ | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market | 39% | 25% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AZ (rating 1487 vs 1562).
- H2H favours FC Utrecht: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Utrecht | AZ | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 1.4 | 2.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.8 | 2.3 / 6.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.2 | 2.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht 2–3–1 AZ
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 2-0 HT 2-0 | AZ |
| 26/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | AZ | 4-1 HT 2-0 | FC Utrecht |
| 18/01/25 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 0-0 HT 0-0 | AZ |
| 29/09/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | AZ | 1-2 HT 1-1 | FC Utrecht |
| 19/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie | AZ | 3-3 HT 3-0 | FC Utrecht |
| 03/12/23 Netherlands Eredivisie | FC Utrecht | 1-1 HT 0-1 | AZ |
Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Excelsior | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 3 | AZ | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Telstar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | PSV | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 7 | Ajax | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Groningen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Twente | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | FC Utrecht | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Feyenoord | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | PEC Zwolle | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | Sparta Rotterdam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 | NEC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Willem II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Cambuur Leeuwarden | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Utrecht
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 02/08 | Sevilla Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 24/07 | Cambuur Leeuwarden Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | De Graafschap Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 0 | L |
| 24/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 21/05 | Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 3-2 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 17/05 | Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | NAC Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
AZ
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 2-0 | 9 | 1 | W |
| 02/08 | PSV Netherlands Super Cup |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 25/07 | Olympiacos Europe Friendlies |
0-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 22/07 | Genk Elite Club Friendlies |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Zulte-Waregem Europe Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 18 | 3 | D |
| 04/07 | Gent Europe Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-3 | 1 | 0 | D |
| 17/05 | NAC Netherlands Eredivisie |
2-0 | 3-3 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 03/05 | FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie |
1-1 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 23/04 | Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie |
0-0 | 0-0 | 10 | 3 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht vs AZ?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Utrecht win (39%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht 39%, draw 26%, AZ 35%.
How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht vs AZ?
The model expects 3.06 goals (FC Utrecht 1.57 · AZ 1.49), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs AZ?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.