Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 09/09, 18:45

Prediction: FC Twente vs Telstar

Team pages: FC Twente · Telstar

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

FC Twente2.43

Telstar0.89

1X2

71% 18% 11%

FC Twente Draw Telstar

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Twente 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWLLWW

Telstar 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWWWLL

Head-to-head

FC Twente 3–2–0 Telstar (5 last)

Telstar1-1FC Twente
FC Twente0-0Telstar
FC Twente3-1Telstar
FC Twente1-0Telstar
Telstar1-3FC Twente

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Twente 1588 · Telstar 1477

	FC Twente	Draw	Telstar
Our model	71%	18%	11%
Market	71%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Twente (rating 1588 vs 1477).
H2H favours FC Twente: 3-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Twente	Telstar
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.2	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.25

28.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.98

Under 3.51.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:38 +7’	1.30	5.25	8.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Twente 3–2–0 Telstar

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	Telstar	1-1 HT 1-0	FC Twente
07/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Twente	0-0 HT 0-0	Telstar
10/01/23 Netherlands Cup	FC Twente	3-1 HT 2-0	Telstar
12/04/19 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	FC Twente	1-0 HT 1-0	Telstar
21/09/18 Netherlands Eerste Divisie	Telstar	1-3 HT 1-1	FC Twente

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	PSV	4	3	1	0	15	5	10
3	Feyenoord	4	2	2	0	10	6	8
4	Ajax	3	2	1	0	8	2	7
5	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
6	Fortuna Sittard	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	NEC	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
8	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
8	FC Twente	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
10	FC Groningen	4	2	0	2	9	10	6
11	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	5	6	5
12	Sparta Rotterdam	5	1	2	2	9	9	5
13	PEC Zwolle	5	1	1	3	6	10	4
14	Telstar	3	1	0	2	3	8	3
15	Willem II	3	0	1	2	4	10	1
16	ADO Den Haag	4	0	1	3	4	11	1
17	FC Utrecht	4	0	1	3	6	15	1
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	4	0	0	4	4	16	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Twente	Telstar
PSV	1-5 L	3-1 W
Sparta Rotterdam	4-0 W	1-3 L
NEC	1-1 D	2-1 W
FC Volendam	2-1 W	2-1 W
Ajax	2-1 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Twente

WWWDDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	4-1	9	2	W
16/08	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-1	6	0	W
09/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-1	8	3	L
17/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-5	9	2	L
10/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	4-0	9	2	W
03/05	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	3	0	D
25/04	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-1	3	3	D
10/04	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	7	2	W
04/04	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
21/03	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-1	6	2	W

Telstar

WLLWDWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-4	5	0	L
14/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-3	7	2	L
08/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	2-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/05	FC Volendam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	0	4	W
10/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-0	6	5	W
02/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
22/04	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	2	W
11/04	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-4	5	3	L
04/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
22/03	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	1	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Twente vs Telstar?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Twente win (71%). Probabilities: FC Twente 71%, draw 18%, Telstar 11%.

How many goals are expected in FC Twente vs Telstar?

The model expects 3.33 goals (FC Twente 2.43 · Telstar 0.89), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Twente vs Telstar?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.