Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 18/09, 20:00

Prediction: FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle

Team pages: FC Groningen · PEC Zwolle

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

FC Groningen2.11

PEC Zwolle1.2

1X2

58% 22% 20%

FC Groningen Draw PEC Zwolle

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Groningen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLLDD

PEC Zwolle 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLLLWLD

Head-to-head

FC Groningen 0–5–1 PEC Zwolle (6 last)

PEC Zwolle1-1FC Groningen
FC Groningen2-2PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle2-0FC Groningen
FC Groningen0-0PEC Zwolle
PEC Zwolle0-0FC Groningen
PEC Zwolle1-1FC Groningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Groningen 1480 · PEC Zwolle 1421

	FC Groningen	Draw	PEC Zwolle
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	58%	22%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Groningen (rating 1480 vs 1421).
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Groningen	PEC Zwolle
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 1	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.1	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	2.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.66
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.60 → 4.60	Pinn 5.01 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +7’	1.61	4.20	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:21 +33’	1.66	3.94	4.99
19:59 +26’	1.66	3.94	5.01▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Groningen 0–5–1 PEC Zwolle

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	1-1 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
23/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	2-2 HT 1-1	PEC Zwolle
18/05/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	2-0 HT 1-0	FC Groningen
08/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	0-0 HT 0-0	PEC Zwolle
05/08/23 Europe Friendlies	PEC Zwolle	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
20/02/22 Netherlands Eredivisie	PEC Zwolle	1-1 HT 0-1	FC Groningen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	PSV	6	5	1	0	22	7	16
2	AZ	6	5	1	0	17	6	16
3	Feyenoord	6	4	2	0	20	7	14
4	FC Twente	6	4	1	1	12	5	13
5	Ajax	5	3	1	1	14	6	10
6	Excelsior	6	3	1	2	13	7	10
7	Fortuna Sittard	6	3	1	2	12	14	10
8	Go Ahead Eagles	6	2	3	1	15	13	9
9	FC Groningen	6	2	2	2	12	13	8
10	NEC	6	2	1	3	11	12	7
11	Heerenveen	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
12	Sparta Rotterdam	6	1	2	3	10	13	5
13	Telstar	6	1	2	3	5	11	5
14	FC Utrecht	6	1	2	3	11	19	5
15	Cambuur Leeuwarden	6	1	1	4	9	18	4
16	PEC Zwolle	6	1	1	4	6	17	4
17	Willem II	5	0	2	3	5	14	2
18	ADO Den Haag	6	0	1	5	6	16	1

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Groningen	PEC Zwolle
FC Twente	2-2 D	1-3 L
Fortuna Sittard	2-3 L	2-3 L
PSV	1-5 L	1-6 L
Ajax	0-2 L	0-2 L
Heracles	2-1 W	1-0 W
NEC	2-1 W	1-3 L
Excelsior	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Groningen (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Groningen

LWWLWWLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-1	0	1	D
06/09	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	2-2	2-2	8	2	D
28/08	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-3	7	7	L
23/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
16/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
21/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
17/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-3	5	0	L

PEC Zwolle

DLWLLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
29/08	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
22/08	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
16/08	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-3	3	0	L
09/08	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
17/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	2	0	L
10/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-3	5	1	L
03/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
23/04	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-6	4	2	L
12/04	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-2	5	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Groningen win (58%). Probabilities: FC Groningen 58%, draw 22%, PEC Zwolle 20%.

How many goals are expected in FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

The model expects 3.31 goals (FC Groningen 2.11 · PEC Zwolle 1.2), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.