Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 28/08, 20:00

Prediction: FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard

Team pages: FC Groningen · Fortuna Sittard

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

FC Groningen2.03

Fortuna Sittard1.03

1X2

60% 22% 18%

FC Groningen Draw Fortuna Sittard

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Groningen 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWWLWWL

Fortuna Sittard 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLLWLDWL

Head-to-head

FC Groningen 2–1–3 Fortuna Sittard (6 last)

FC Groningen1-2Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-2FC Groningen
FC Groningen1-0Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard1-0FC Groningen
FC Groningen0-0Fortuna Sittard
Fortuna Sittard3-1FC Groningen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Groningen 1491 · Fortuna Sittard 1462

	FC Groningen	Draw	Fortuna Sittard
Our model	59%	23%	18%
Market	60%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Fortuna Sittard: 3-1-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Groningen	Fortuna Sittard
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.7	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	1.5 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.33

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:01

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.33 → 4.33	Pinn 4.82
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.84 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.3% Pinnacle margin 5.8%

Time*	1	X	2
19:56 +5’	1.53	4.33	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +1’	1.47	4.83	5.84
21:13 +1’	1.47	4.82▼	5.84

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Groningen 2–1–3 Fortuna Sittard

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/01/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-2 HT 1-2	Fortuna Sittard
25/10/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Groningen
16/03/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Groningen	1-0 HT 0-0	Fortuna Sittard
26/10/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Groningen
08/02/24 Netherlands Cup	FC Groningen	0-0 HT 0-0	Fortuna Sittard
02/04/23 Netherlands Eredivisie	Fortuna Sittard	3-1 HT 2-0	FC Groningen

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	3	3	0	0	8	1	9
2	FC Groningen	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
3	Go Ahead Eagles	2	1	1	0	6	3	4
4	Ajax	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	PSV	2	1	1	0	4	3	4
6	Feyenoord	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Sparta Rotterdam	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
8	Fortuna Sittard	3	1	1	1	5	5	4
9	Heerenveen	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
10	Excelsior	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
11	NEC	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
12	FC Twente	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
13	Telstar	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
14	PEC Zwolle	3	1	0	2	3	5	3
15	FC Utrecht	3	0	1	2	5	9	1
16	ADO Den Haag	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
17	Willem II	2	0	0	2	2	8	0
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	2	0	0	2	1	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Groningen	Fortuna Sittard
PSV	1-5 L	2-2 D
FC Utrecht	2-1 W	0-2 L
Feyenoord	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fortuna Sittard (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Groningen

WDLLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-3	1-5	4	2	L
16/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	4-1	2	1	W
09/08	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	2	W
21/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	0	5	L
17/05	Heracles Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-1	5	2	W
10/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-1	5	3	W
02/05	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	2-3	5	0	L
25/04	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-3	3	2	L
11/04	Go Ahead Eagles Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	8	0	D
04/04	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	12	2	W

Fortuna Sittard

LLDLLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-2	1	2	L
15/08	Cambuur Leeuwarden Netherlands Eredivisie	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
08/08	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-2	0	2	D
17/05	FC Utrecht Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	0-2	5	1	L
10/05	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-2	6	1	W
03/05	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-2	1	6	L
25/04	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	1-2	0	4	L
12/04	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
04/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-2	6	3	L
21/03	FC Twente Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	1-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Groningen win (60%). Probabilities: FC Groningen 60%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 18%.

How many goals are expected in FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?

The model expects 3.06 goals (FC Groningen 2.03 · Fortuna Sittard 1.03), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Groningen vs Fortuna Sittard?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.