Football · Netherlands Eredivisie · 05/09, 18:45

Prediction: FC Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles

Team pages: FC Utrecht · Go Ahead Eagles

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

FC Utrecht1.97

Go Ahead Eagles1.48

1X2

48% 23% 28%

FC Utrecht Draw Go Ahead Eagles

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Utrecht 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWWWDLLD

Go Ahead Eagles 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDDLLWDWL

Head-to-head

FC Utrecht 2–4–0 Go Ahead Eagles (6 last)

FC Utrecht2-0Go Ahead Eagles
Go Ahead Eagles2-2FC Utrecht
Go Ahead Eagles2-2FC Utrecht
FC Utrecht3-3Go Ahead Eagles
FC Utrecht1-1Go Ahead Eagles
FC Utrecht2-1Go Ahead Eagles

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Utrecht 1457 · Go Ahead Eagles 1528

	FC Utrecht	Draw	Go Ahead Eagles
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	48%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Go Ahead Eagles (rating 1457 vs 1528).
H2H favours FC Utrecht: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Utrecht	Go Ahead Eagles
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.8	2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	1.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.91▲	Pinn 1.93
X	4.20 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	4.10 → 3.25▼	Pinn 3.85 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 8.2% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
15:13 +6’	1.67	4.20	4.10
18:34 +5’	1.91▲	4.00▼	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:36 +3’	1.93	3.64	3.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Utrecht 2–4–0 Go Ahead Eagles

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	2-0 HT 2-0	Go Ahead Eagles
30/11/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	2-2 HT 0-1	FC Utrecht
06/04/25 Netherlands Eredivisie	Go Ahead Eagles	2-2 HT 2-2	FC Utrecht
15/12/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	3-3 HT 1-1	Go Ahead Eagles
26/05/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	1-1 HT 1-0	Go Ahead Eagles
14/04/24 Netherlands Eredivisie	FC Utrecht	2-1 HT 1-1	Go Ahead Eagles

Standings · Netherlands Eredivisie

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AZ	4	4	0	0	13	3	12
2	PSV	3	2	1	0	9	4	7
3	Feyenoord	3	2	1	0	8	4	7
4	Go Ahead Eagles	4	2	1	1	11	9	7
5	Fortuna Sittard	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
6	NEC	3	2	0	1	8	4	6
7	Excelsior	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
8	FC Groningen	4	2	0	2	9	10	6
9	Ajax	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
10	Heerenveen	3	1	1	1	3	4	4
11	Sparta Rotterdam	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
12	FC Twente	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
13	Telstar	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
14	PEC Zwolle	4	1	0	3	4	8	3
15	FC Utrecht	3	0	1	2	5	9	1
16	Willem II	2	0	0	2	2	8	0
17	ADO Den Haag	3	0	0	3	2	9	0
18	Cambuur Leeuwarden	3	0	0	3	3	12	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Utrecht	Go Ahead Eagles
Sparta Rotterdam	3-3 D	2-2 D
AZ	1-4 L	2-5 L
FC Groningen	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Go Ahead Eagles (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Utrecht

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	3-3	7	0	D
15/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-4	3	6	L
09/08	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
24/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
21/05	Heerenveen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	3-2	9	1	W
17/05	Fortuna Sittard Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
10/05	Ajax Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-1	7	4	W
02/05	NAC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/04	Excelsior Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	0-5	2	3	L
11/04	Telstar Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	4-1	7	3	W

Go Ahead Eagles

WDDDLLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	2-5	4	0	L
23/08	ADO Den Haag Netherlands Eredivisie	1-0	3-1	5	3	W
16/08	Feyenoord Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	2-2	6	0	D
08/08	Willem II Netherlands Eredivisie	1-1	4-1	6	3	W
17/05	NEC Netherlands Eredivisie	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
10/05	PSV Netherlands Eredivisie	1-2	1-4	8	0	L
03/05	Sparta Rotterdam Netherlands Eredivisie	0-1	2-2	8	6	D
23/04	AZ Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
11/04	FC Groningen Netherlands Eredivisie	0-0	0-0	5	0	D
05/04	PEC Zwolle Netherlands Eredivisie	3-0	5-0	5	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Utrecht win (48%). Probabilities: FC Utrecht 48%, draw 23%, Go Ahead Eagles 28%.

How many goals are expected in FC Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model expects 3.45 goals (FC Utrecht 1.97 · Go Ahead Eagles 1.48), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Utrecht vs Go Ahead Eagles?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.